宏观经济和微观经济因素的敏感性,可以预测食品和企业股价的波动

Abdul Kohar, N. Ahmar, S. Suratno
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引用次数: 3

摘要

宏观经济因素的运动可以用来预测股票价格的运动,但不同的研究者使用不同的宏观经济因素,因为他们之间还没有达成共识,哪些宏观经济因素对股票价格有影响。本研究旨在分析和检验通货膨胀、利率、汇率等宏观经济因素和资产增长、增长收益、销售增长等微观经济因素对2011 - 2015年印尼证券交易所上市食品饮料公司股价波动的影响。本研究测量通货膨胀、利率和股价波动的敏感性,方法是用股价对每个变量进行回归,得出每个变量的敏感性值。采用经典假设作为回归分析技术(多元回归)的前提,对66个样本进行了检验。结果表明,通货膨胀部分影响股价波动,印尼利率(SBI)部分影响股价波动,汇率和微观经济部分不影响股价波动。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
SENSITIVITAS FAKTOR EKONOMI MAKRO DAN MIKRO DALAM MEMPREDIKSI VOLATILITAS HARGA SAHAM PERUSAHAAN SEKTOR INDUSTRI FOOD & BEVERAGES
The movement of macroeconomic factors can be used to predict the movement of the stock price, but different researchers are using different macroeconomic factors because there is still no consensus among them which macroeconomic factors that have an influence on stock prices. This study aimed to analyze and test the impact of macroeconomics factors which consisting of inflation, interest rates, exchange rate, and microeconomy factors, consisting of asset growth, growth earnings and sales growth to the volatility of stock prices on food and beverages companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange between 2011 and 2015 period. The study measure the sensitivity of inflation and interest rates and stock price volatility by regressing each variable with a share price which will produce the sensitivity value of each variable. A total of 66 samples are tested by using the classic assumption as the precondition for regression analysis techniques (multiple regressions). The results showed that inflation is partially affect the stock price volatility, Indonesia Interest Rate (SBI) is partially effect on stock price volatility, and exchange rate and microeconomics are partially no effect on stock price volatility.
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