基于电力大数据的用户电力分布及负荷预测研究

Haohan Hu, Hongbo Guo, Li Zhang, Wanlong Liu, Ning Li, Yan Li
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引用次数: 1

摘要

根据新的电力体制改革,售电市场已成为电力行业中的一个新兴行业。对于单个大功率用户,需要进行越来越详细的能耗分析。目前,各市场主体对消费能源的深入分析已经取得了一定的成果,但严谨的学术研究还很缺乏。本文根据售电市场的实际情况,将机器学习的相关原理应用于用电用户。结合收集到的用户电量大数据,多维度提取各种用户电量特征。使用各种负荷预测算法模拟用户画像,并将其应用于特征工程。采用无量纲化、二值化、降维等方法改善了用户能耗的主要影响因素。根据能量分布图,拓展了一类适合当前电力市场主体的负荷预测方法。最后通过实例验证了研究结果的有效性。通过预测算法对用户负荷进行预测,平均误差结果为2.65%,总体预测结果误差一般为2% ~ 7%。保证预测方法的可靠性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research of User Power Profile and Load Forecast Based on Power Big Data
According to the new power system reform, the power sales market has become an emerging industry in the power industry. For a single high-power user, more and more detailed energy consumption analysis is required. At present, the in-depth analysis of consumer energy by various market entities has produced certain results, but rigorous academic research is scarce. According to the actual situation of the electricity sales market, this article applies the relevant principles of machine learning to electricity users. Combine the collected user power big data to extract various user energy characteristics in multiple dimensions. Use a variety of load forecasting algorithms to simulate user portraits and apply them to feature engineering. The use of non-dimensional, binarization, dimensionality reduction and other methods has improved the main influencing factors of user energy consumption. According to the energy distribution diagram, a class of load forecasting methods suitable for current electricity market entities expanded. Finally, an example used to verify the effectiveness of the research results. The load forecasting of users through the forecasting algorithm shows that the average error result is 2.65%, and the error of the overall forecast result is generally 2% to 7%. Ensure the reliability of the forecasting method.
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