印度中央邦COVID-19传播和稳定的数学模型:一种基本方法

2021 International Conference on Advances in Technology, Management & Education (ICATME) Pub Date : 2021-01-08 DOI:10.21203/RS.3.RS-574297/V1

D. Kumar, Vikash Kumar, Vijay Panchore, Ravi Kumar Mandava, S. Sarangi

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引用次数: 1

摘要

本研究旨在模拟印度中央邦地区人民在封锁期间的COVID-19传播和稳定约束。基于病毒携带者的断链概念，建立了预测病毒传播链断裂所需天数的数学模型。该模型在封锁中期预测了非常准确的COVID-19结果。不幸的是，中央邦没有达到该模型所预期的阻断病毒传播链的良好回收率。因此，这个新模型在很长一段时间内未能预测COVID-19的传播。然而，这种新模型很有可能模拟类似于COVID-19传播的其他平行情况。

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Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spread and stabilization in Madhya Pradesh, India: A fundamental approach

The present study was performed to model a COVID-19 spread and stabilization constraints for the regional people of Madhya Pradesh, India, at the mid-time of the lockdown period. A novel mathematical model was developed to predict the number of days required to break the virus spread chain based on the chain breaking concept of the virus carriers. This model has predicted the very accurate COVID-19 results at a mid-time of the lockdown period. Unfortunately, a good recovery rate was not achieved in Madhya Pradesh as expected by the model to stop the chain of virus spread. Thus, this novel model failed to predict the COVID-19 spread for a large duration. Nevertheless, this novel model has much potential to model the other parallel situations similar to COVID-19 spread.

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2021 International Conference on Advances in Technology, Management & Education (ICATME)

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