4个豇豆品种干旱胁迫下DSSAT cropgro -豇豆模型的标定与验证

Thiombiano Célestin, Lado Abdulrahman, M. A. Hussaini, B. A. Lawan, Sermé Idriss
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摘要

农业技术转移决策支持系统(DSSAT)是一个由作物模拟模型组成的软件。本研究的目的是:校准四种豇豆品种的DSSAT cropgro -豇豆模型,并使用在干旱胁迫下收集的数据集对模型进行验证。为此,在布基纳法索环境与农业研究与培训中心(CREAF)的Kamboinsin进行了2020年和2021年旱季的实验。利用无水分和养分胁迫试验收集的开花至50%天数、成熟天数、地上生物量和每公顷粮食产量等数据对模型进行校正,并利用GenCalc软件估算品种的遗传系数。利用D1:苗期干旱和D2:开花期干旱两种干旱胁迫处理的数据对模型进行验证。校正结果表明,该模型能较好地模拟开花天数,标准化均方根误差(nRMSE)小于10%,对所有品种具有较高的一致性。50%的品种生理成熟期模拟优良(nRMSE<10%),其余品种模拟良好(10 < nRMSE< 20%)。每公顷粮食产量的模拟从优到好不等。75%的品种对地上生物量的预测较差(nRMSE= 40%),而25%的品种(nRMSE=27%)在模型校准期间得到了良好的模拟。验证过程的统计表明,对开花天数的模拟效果很好(nRMSE= 1.85%;R2 = 0.98;d-index=0.99),预测成熟期较好(nRMSE=13.82;R2 = 0.87;D-index =0.53)。地上生物量模拟值与实测值吻合较差(nRMSE=106.62%;R2 = 0.92;d-index = 0.36)。验证过程中,该模型对粮食产量的预测效果较好(nRMSE = 27%)。综上所述,DSSAT模型可作为预测最佳发育条件下豇豆物候、生长和产量的有效工具。然而,在干旱胁迫条件下,品种对干旱的敏感或耐受状态会降低模型对粮食产量预测的准确性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Calibration and Validation of CROPGRO-cowpea Model of DSSAT for Four Cowpea Varieties under Drought Stress
The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfert (DSSAT) is a software comprising crop simulation models. The aim of this study was to: Calibrate the CROPGRO-cowpea model of DSSAT for four cowpea varieties, and Validate the model using a data set collected under drought stress For this purpose, experiments were carried out in 2020 and 2021 dry seasons in Burkina Faso at Kamboinsin in the Centre of Environmental and Agricultural Research and Training (CREAF). The model calibration was done using data including days to 50% flowering, days to maturity, above-ground biomass, and grain yield per hectare collected from an experiment without water and nutrient stress, and the GenCalc software was used for estimating the genetic coefficients of the varieties. Data from two drought stress treatments, such as D1: drought at seedling stage, and D2: drought at flowering stage, were used for validating the model. The results of the calibration showed that the model excellently simulated the days to flowering with a normalized root mean square error (nRMSE) of less than 10% and a high degree of agreement for all the varieties. The simulation of the days to physiological maturity was excellent for 50% of the varieties (nRMSE<10%) and good for the others (10 < nRMSE < 20%). The simulation of the grain yield per hectare ranged from excellent to good. Poor prediction of the above-ground biomass was attained for 75% of the varieties (nRMSE ≥ 40%), while the fair simulation was recorded for 25% (nRMSE=27%) during the model calibration. The statistics of the validation process showed an excellent simulation of the days to flowering (nRMSE= 1.85%; R2=0.98; d-index=0.99) and a good prediction of the days to maturity (nRMSE=13.82; R2=0.87; d-index=0.53) for all the varieties. Simulated above-ground biomass was in poor agreement with the observed values (nRMSE=106.62%; R2=0.92; d-index=0.36). Fair prediction of the grain yield by the model was achieved during the validation (nRMSE = 27%). From these results, it can be concluded that the DSSAT model can be considered an efficient tool for predicting cowpea phenology, growth, and yield in optimum conditions of development. However, in drought stress conditions, the sensitivity or tolerance status to the drought of the variety can reduce the accuracy of the grain yield prediction by the model.
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