尼日利亚农业产出对经济发展的影响(1986-2014):一个实证检验

A. Matthew, D. Mordecai
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摘要

本文利用1986 - 2014年的年度时间序列数据,实证检验了尼日利亚农业产出对经济发展的影响。以人均收入(PCI)为代表的经济发展可以用农业产出(AOUT)和公共农业支出(PXA)来解释。农业对经济增长的贡献可以通过该部门在经济中的作用来考察。本研究采用增广Dickey-Fuller单位根检验和向量自回归模型。多元VAR模型的结果表明,大部分变量的滞后性不显著。然而,在PCI的VAR回归估计中,R2和F值的高水平给出了令人信服的结果,即所有滞后项都具有统计显著性,这意味着农业在尼日利亚的经济发展中起着重要作用。方差分解分析表明,除反馈冲击外,农业冲击对经济发展冲击的贡献更大。支持方差分解分析的脉冲响应函数的结果显示,在整个10年期间,人均收入对农业产出冲击的响应为正,而PCI对PXA冲击的响应在前两年为负,但在后8年期间变为正。因此,我们得出结论,农业是有益的,在尼日利亚经济的发展过程中发挥着重要作用。因此,政府应该持续增加对该部门的支出,确保尼日利亚经济多样化,换句话说,原油不应该成为尼日利亚经济的支柱。此外,尼日利亚政府应鼓励金融机构将其信贷总额的一定比例用于农业部门,以增加粮食供应,创造就业机会,减少贫困等。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Impact of Agricultural Output on Economic Development in Nigeria (1986-2014): An Empirical Examination
This paper empirically examined the impact of agricultural output on economic development in Nigeria using annual time series data spanning 1986 to 2014. Economic development proxied by per capita income (PCI) was explained by agricultural output (AOUT) and public agricultural expenditure (PXA). The contributions of agriculture to economic growth can be examined through the roles of the sector in the economy.  The study employed the Augmented Dickey-Fuller Unit Root test and the Vector Autoregressive model. The result of the multivariate VAR model indicated that most of the lags of the variables are not significant. However, the high level of the R2 and F value in the VAR regression estimates for PCI gave convincing results that collectively all the lagged terms are statistically significant, implying that agriculture plays an important role in Nigeria’s economic development. The variance decomposition analysis revealed that the greater contribution to shocks in economic development apart from feedback shocks was received from shocks to agriculture. The results of the impulse response function in support of the variance decomposition analysis showed that per capita income responded positively to shocks in agricultural output throughout the ten year period, while the response of PCI to shocks in PXA was negative in the first two year period but became positive throughout the last eight periods. We therefore concluded that agriculture is beneficial and plays a significant role in the development process of Nigerian economy. Hence, the government should increase its expenditure on the sector consistently and ensure that Nigerian economy is diversified, in other words, crude oil should not be the mainstay of Nigerian economy. Also, the government of Nigeria should encourage financial institutions to make certain percentage of their total credit facilities available for the agricultural sector in order to enhance food supply, employment generations, poverty reduction, etc.
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