A Hybrid Modeling Approach for Automated Parcel Lockers as a Last-Mile Delivery Scheme: A Case Study in Pamplona (Spain)

Recently, last-mile distribution in cities has been constrained by fast-delivery options, hard time windows, and no-show-up customers. The promotion of automated parcel locker (APL) systems is seen as a way to mitigate the aforementioned problems. Thus, this paper analyzes APL users in the city of Pamplona (Spain), and proposes the use of hybrid modeling for APL network design. Moreover, agent-based modeling is used to estimate future demand based on a number of socio-economic parameters, i.e., population, e-commerce growth rates, among others. Likewise, the APL location optimization model is dynamically executed within the simulation framework to minimize the operational and service costs. Our hybrid methodology forecasts an increase of eShoppers by 10%, while the number of APLs increases up to 500% in a 3-year time horizon. In light of those results, the use of simulation and optimization tools leverages the promotion of APLs as a last-mile distribution scheme.