利用机器学习的马尔可夫模型预测人工智能的发展轨迹

Matilda Isaac, Olukunle Mobolaji Akinola, Bintao Hu
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摘要

下一代人工超级智能(ASI)带来了各种重要的社会问题,包括人工智能机器可能出现的危机和动荡,这可能会导致根本性的变化。围绕人工超级智能的讨论强调了人类与其控制技术的能力之间持续对话的重要性,它也提出了设计智能交互和协作工具和系统以允许这种对话的问题。从历史上看,“AI”一词在1950年至1975年期间被使用,然后在1975年至1995年的“AI寒冬”期间失宠,并被缩小为ANI(人工狭义智能)。因此,“机器学习”、“自然语言处理”和“数据科学”等术语经常被误认为是人工智能。今天,人工智能已经允许临床医生严重依赖机器学习,机器学习与编码、计费、医疗记录、调度、合同、药物订购和管理功能高度集成。人工智能现在是一个蓬勃发展的产业,拥有大量的资本投资,再次处于一场伟大革命的边缘。有令人信服的理由来研究人工超级智能。这种类型的人工智能能够通过表达认知技能和发展自己的心智能力来超越人类的智力。ASI是一种高度复杂、智能的人工智能,超越了正常的智力能力。本文将讨论ASI的社会影响和当前的学术影响。最后,本研究将尝试利用机器学习的马尔可夫决策模型来预测ASI在不久的将来的发展轨迹。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Predicting the Trajectory of AI Utilizing the Markov Model of Machine Learning
The next generation of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) poses a variety of important societal problems, including the possible crises and upheavals of the AI machine, which could cause fundamental changes. As the discussion around Artificial Superintelligence underscores the importance of continual dialogue between man and its ability to control technology, it also raises the problem of designing intelligent interactive and collaborative tools and systems to allow this dialogue. Historically, the term “AI” was used from 1950 to 1975, then fell out of favor during the” AI winter” from 1975 to 1995, and was narrowed to ANI (Artificial Narrow Intelligence). As a result, terms like “Machine Learning,” “Natural language Processing,” and “Data Science” were frequently mislabelled as AI. Today, AI has allowed clinicians to rely heavily on ML which is highly integrated with coding, billing, medical records, scheduling, contracting, medication ordering, and administrative functions. AI is now a thriving industry with massive capital investments and once again is on the verge of a great revolution. There are compelling reasons to investigate artificial super intelligence. This type of AI is capable of surpassing human intellect by expressing cognitive skills and developing its own mental capabilities. ASI is a highly sophisticated, and intelligent type of AI that goes beyond normal intellectual capacity. This paper will discuss the societal impact and the current academic impact of ASI. Finally, this study would attempt to utilize the Markov Decision Model of Machine Learning to predict the trajectory of ASI in the very near future.
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