数据分析和模拟:优化选民等待时间

Catherine King, L. Leemis
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摘要

2012年大选后成立的两党选举委员会建议,美国人投票的等待时间不应超过30分钟。然而,在每一个总统选举年,选民不得不等待几个小时的故事都会浮出水面。排长队扰乱了选民的日程安排,阻碍了经济活动,但也可能使选民不愿继续排队投票。减少平均和最长选民等待时间的一种方法是通过优化人员配置和提供足够的投票亭来更好地准备投票地点。数据是在2015年11月的非年度代表选举期间从弗吉尼亚州威廉斯堡的一个投票站收集的。模拟分析结果显示,在威廉斯堡选区进行总统选举时,为了使等待时间不超过30分钟,至少需要4-5名投票工作人员登记选民,至少需要12-15个投票亭或机器。每小时到达的选民人数以及登记和投票所需时间的数据通常由州或某些投票站收集。这个离散事件模拟的通用免费版本是用Java创建的。这个资源分配工具将之前的数据作为输入,并估计所需的投票站和工作人员数量,以便将大约99%的等待时间保持在30分钟以内。模拟和统计分析用于确定所需资源的数量。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Data analysis and simulation: Optimizing voter wait times
The bipartisan election commission formed after the 2012 election recommended that no American should wait longer than 30 minutes to vote. However, in every presidential election year, stories surface of voters having to wait several hours. Long lines disrupt voters' schedules and hinder economic activity, but can also discourage voters from remaining in line to vote. One way to decrease the average and maximum voter wait times is to better prepare polling locations by staffing optimally and having enough voting booths available. Data was collected from a Williamsburg polling location in Virginia during the off-year November 2015 delegate election. Simulation analysis found that in order to have maximum wait times of less than 30 minutes in this Williamsburg precinct during a presidential election then at least 4-5 poll workers to check in voters and 12-15 voting booths or machines are needed. Data on the number of voters that arrive per hour and the amount of time it takes to check in and vote are often collected by the state or by certain polling places. A general, free version of this discrete-event simulation was created in Java. This resource allocation tool takes previous data as an input and estimates the number of voting booths and staff needed in order to keep approximately 99% of wait times less than 30 minutes. Simulation and statistical analysis are used to determine the number of resources necessary.
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