Maja Celeska, K. Najdenkoski, V. Stoilkov, Aneta Buchkovska, Zhivko Kokolanski, V. Dimchev
{"title":"比较统计方法对测风数据的威布尔参数估计","authors":"Maja Celeska, K. Najdenkoski, V. Stoilkov, Aneta Buchkovska, Zhivko Kokolanski, V. Dimchev","doi":"10.1109/EUROCON.2015.7313684","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this study, we investigate the wind speed characteristics in the northern part of Republic of Macedonia, using measured wind speed data in the period from August 2012 to March 2015. The two parameter Weibull distribution is widely used for modeling, characterizing and predicting wind resource and wind power, as well as assessing the optimal performance of wind energy conversion systems. Therefore it is very important to precisely estimate the Weibull parameters for any candidate site. We compare four methods for calculating the parameters of Weibull wind speed distribution for wind energy analysis: Method of moments, Empirical method, Maximum likelihood method and Power density method. We apply each method on a sample of hourly averaged wind speed data and estimate its accuracy using statistical methods of analysis. Finaly, we conclude that the Maximum likelihood method gives best results in calculating the shape parameter - k and scale parameter - c for the particular site. Once the Weibull parameters are calculated with high accuracy, further research can be done in using the kinetic wind energy.","PeriodicalId":133824,"journal":{"name":"IEEE EUROCON 2015 - International Conference on Computer as a Tool (EUROCON)","volume":"67 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2015-11-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"14","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Estimation of Weibull parameters from wind measurement data by comparison of statistical methods\",\"authors\":\"Maja Celeska, K. Najdenkoski, V. Stoilkov, Aneta Buchkovska, Zhivko Kokolanski, V. Dimchev\",\"doi\":\"10.1109/EUROCON.2015.7313684\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"In this study, we investigate the wind speed characteristics in the northern part of Republic of Macedonia, using measured wind speed data in the period from August 2012 to March 2015. The two parameter Weibull distribution is widely used for modeling, characterizing and predicting wind resource and wind power, as well as assessing the optimal performance of wind energy conversion systems. Therefore it is very important to precisely estimate the Weibull parameters for any candidate site. We compare four methods for calculating the parameters of Weibull wind speed distribution for wind energy analysis: Method of moments, Empirical method, Maximum likelihood method and Power density method. We apply each method on a sample of hourly averaged wind speed data and estimate its accuracy using statistical methods of analysis. Finaly, we conclude that the Maximum likelihood method gives best results in calculating the shape parameter - k and scale parameter - c for the particular site. Once the Weibull parameters are calculated with high accuracy, further research can be done in using the kinetic wind energy.\",\"PeriodicalId\":133824,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"IEEE EUROCON 2015 - International Conference on Computer as a Tool (EUROCON)\",\"volume\":\"67 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2015-11-02\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"14\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"IEEE EUROCON 2015 - International Conference on Computer as a Tool (EUROCON)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1109/EUROCON.2015.7313684\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"IEEE EUROCON 2015 - International Conference on Computer as a Tool (EUROCON)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1109/EUROCON.2015.7313684","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimation of Weibull parameters from wind measurement data by comparison of statistical methods
In this study, we investigate the wind speed characteristics in the northern part of Republic of Macedonia, using measured wind speed data in the period from August 2012 to March 2015. The two parameter Weibull distribution is widely used for modeling, characterizing and predicting wind resource and wind power, as well as assessing the optimal performance of wind energy conversion systems. Therefore it is very important to precisely estimate the Weibull parameters for any candidate site. We compare four methods for calculating the parameters of Weibull wind speed distribution for wind energy analysis: Method of moments, Empirical method, Maximum likelihood method and Power density method. We apply each method on a sample of hourly averaged wind speed data and estimate its accuracy using statistical methods of analysis. Finaly, we conclude that the Maximum likelihood method gives best results in calculating the shape parameter - k and scale parameter - c for the particular site. Once the Weibull parameters are calculated with high accuracy, further research can be done in using the kinetic wind energy.