比较统计方法对测风数据的威布尔参数估计

Maja Celeska, K. Najdenkoski, V. Stoilkov, Aneta Buchkovska, Zhivko Kokolanski, V. Dimchev
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引用次数: 14

摘要

本文利用2012年8月至2015年3月的实测风速资料,对马其顿共和国北部地区的风速特征进行了研究。双参数威布尔分布被广泛用于风资源和风力的建模、表征和预测,以及风能转换系统的最优性能评估。因此,准确地估计任何候选点的威布尔参数是非常重要的。比较了用于风能分析的威布尔风速分布参数的四种计算方法:矩量法、经验法、极大似然法和功率密度法。我们将每种方法应用于每小时平均风速数据样本,并使用统计分析方法估计其准确性。最后,我们得出结论,最大似然法在计算特定场地的形状参数- k和尺度参数- c时给出了最好的结果。一旦高精度地计算出威布尔参数,就可以进一步研究利用动能风能。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Estimation of Weibull parameters from wind measurement data by comparison of statistical methods
In this study, we investigate the wind speed characteristics in the northern part of Republic of Macedonia, using measured wind speed data in the period from August 2012 to March 2015. The two parameter Weibull distribution is widely used for modeling, characterizing and predicting wind resource and wind power, as well as assessing the optimal performance of wind energy conversion systems. Therefore it is very important to precisely estimate the Weibull parameters for any candidate site. We compare four methods for calculating the parameters of Weibull wind speed distribution for wind energy analysis: Method of moments, Empirical method, Maximum likelihood method and Power density method. We apply each method on a sample of hourly averaged wind speed data and estimate its accuracy using statistical methods of analysis. Finaly, we conclude that the Maximum likelihood method gives best results in calculating the shape parameter - k and scale parameter - c for the particular site. Once the Weibull parameters are calculated with high accuracy, further research can be done in using the kinetic wind energy.
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