基于自由现金流的互联网企业价值评估实证研究

Zelin Chen, Zhiyuan Jiang
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The market pattern is stable after generating revenue, such as Didi taxi, Meituan and shared bicycle market. Under the huge gap between Internet-based enterprises and traditional enterprises, it is worthwhile to explore whether the valuation model of traditional enterprise value is applicable to Internet enterprise value assessment. B. Literature review In the literature, the research on the relationship between free cash flow and corporate value of enterprises focuses on traditional enterprises or enterprises related to traditional industries. For example, Rubei, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, uses the free cash flow discount model to study the value of enterprises [1]. Han Xingguo, School of Economics and Management, Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology, takes Yili as the research object and evaluates the value of the company through the free cash flow discount model [2]. Shanghai University of International Business and Economics School of Finance and Management, Geng Shangzhou, Wang Yazhen, Cai Yuxin, based on the user traffic estimation model and the Metcalfe law proposed by Robert Metcalf for the network value analysis, evaluated the ecological value of LeEco [3]. Based on the value creation perspective, Professor Xuan Xiao and Duan Wenqi consider both financial performance and non-financial performance. Through the four key channels of efficiency, locking, complementarity and innovation, they have six capabilities from operation, profitability, growth, users, collaboration and management. Starting from the dimension, the overall conceptual framework of enterprise value creation on the Internet platform was built [4]. Tian Wuxing and Dai Shuangshuang proposed to shift from traditionally relying solely on financial data to non-financial value standards such as users, brands and human resources [5]. Zhu Lei proposes to use non-financial data to help transform banks [6]. At present, scholars' research on the value of Internet enterprises has gradually turned to the evaluation of the value of Internet enterprises based on non-financial data of enterprises. The research on traditional financial value of enterprises has declined, but the traditional three financial statements are still relatively mature systems. With the booming development of the Internet industry, this article chooses Jinshan Software. As a research object, Jinshan Software has been listed since 2007, and its business operations are in good condition. Financial data are disclosed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. II. FREE CASH FLOW DISCOUNT THEORY MODEL As early as the 1980s, the new concept of free cash flow was proposed by scholars such as Alfred Rabaport of the United States and De Jensen (1982) of Harvard University. The free cash flow of an enterprise is the cash flow that can be allocated to the investors who provide capital to the enterprise to the greatest extent. It is derived from the cash flow generated by the enterprise in daily operations, after deducting the income tax and the investment funds needed for the enterprise to reproduce. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

在全球数字经济模式不断发展的背景下,互联网企业的估值研究越来越受到学者们的关注。随着互联网行业的剧烈变化,企业财务数据不足而无法为研究提供数据支持的问题逐渐得到解决。贴现自由现金流量法是目前企业价值评估领域应用最广泛、理论最成熟的方法。其实用性在互联网领域还没有得到充分的证明。本文采用自由现金流折现模型对样本企业价值进行估计——以金山软件为例,并以互联网公司为研究对象,证明了该模型的可行性和预测性。关键词:企业价值评估;自由现金流;折现模型;一、研究背景与文献综述a、研究背景随着互联网行业的不断发展,互联网公司在运营模式、成长模式、盈利阶段模式等方面与传统企业存在较大差距。与传统企业互联网公司相比,实物资产占比相对较低,软件资产占比相对较高,前期资金投入大,投资风险高。从发展模式来看,传统企业的发展已经从一个小规模的企业逐渐成长为一个大公司,从一开始就可以盈利。互联网公司在早期需要大量的资金支持,并通过免费或低成本的服务积累客户群。产生收入后的市场格局稳定,如滴滴打车、美团、共享单车市场。在互联网企业与传统企业存在巨大差距的情况下,传统企业价值的估值模型是否适用于互联网企业价值评估值得探讨。在文献中,对企业自由现金流与企业价值关系的研究主要集中在传统企业或与传统行业相关的企业。如南京财经大学的茹贝等人采用自由现金流折现模型对企业价值进行研究[1]。内蒙古科技大学经济与管理学院韩兴国以伊利为研究对象,通过自由现金流折现模型对公司价值进行评估[2]。上海对外经济贸易大学金融管理学院耿尚周、王亚珍、蔡玉新基于用户流量估算模型和Robert Metcalf提出的网络价值分析的Metcalfe定律,对乐视的生态价值进行了评估[3]。玄晓教授和段文琪教授基于价值创造的视角,将财务绩效和非财务绩效都考虑在内。通过效率、锁定、互补、创新四大关键渠道,形成运营、盈利、增长、用户、协作、管理六大能力。从维度出发,构建了互联网平台上企业价值创造的总体概念框架[4]。田五星、戴爽等提出从传统的单纯依赖财务数据向用户、品牌、人力资源等非财务价值标准转变[5]。朱磊提出利用非财务数据帮助银行转型[6]。目前,学者们对互联网企业价值的研究逐渐转向基于企业非财务数据对互联网企业价值的评估。传统的企业财务价值研究已经有所下降,但传统的三种财务报表仍然是比较成熟的制度。随着互联网行业的蓬勃发展,本文选择金山软件。作为研究对象,金山软件自2007年上市以来,经营状况良好。财务数据在香港证券交易所披露。2自由现金流折现理论模型早在20世纪80年代,美国的Alfred Rabaport和哈佛大学的De Jensen(1982)等学者就提出了自由现金流的新概念。企业的自由现金流是指能够最大限度地分配给向企业提供资金的投资者的现金流量。它来源于企业在日常经营中产生的现金流,扣除所得税和企业再生产所需的投资资金。计算公式为:公司价值
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Empirical Research on Internet Enterprise Value Evaluation Based on Free Cash Flow
Under the background of the continuous development of the global digital economical model, the research on the valuation of Internet enterprises has increasingly attracted scholars' attention. With the drastic change of the Internet industry, the problem of the inability to provide data support for research due to insufficient corporate financial data has gradually been resolved. The discounted free cash flow method is currently the most extensive and theoretically mature method in the field of enterprise value assessment. Its practicability has not been fully proved in the Internet field. The paper uses the free cash flow discount model to estimate the sample enterprise value--taking Jinshan Software as an example, and proves that it is feasible and predictive while using Internet companies as research objects. Keywords—Enterprise value assessment; Free cash flow; Discount model; Jinshan Software I. RESEARCH BACKGROUND AND LITERATURE REVIEW A. Research background Along with the continuous development of the Internet industry, Internet companies have a large gap with traditional enterprises in terms of operation mode, growth mode and profit stage model. Compared with the traditional enterprise Internet companies, the proportion of physical assets is relatively low, the proportion of software assets is relatively high, and the previous capital investment is high and the investment risk is high. From the perspective of development model, the development of traditional enterprises has gradually grown from a small-scale enterprise to a large company, and it can be profitable from the beginning. Internet companies need a large amount of capital support in the early stage, and accumulate customer base through free or low-cost services. The market pattern is stable after generating revenue, such as Didi taxi, Meituan and shared bicycle market. Under the huge gap between Internet-based enterprises and traditional enterprises, it is worthwhile to explore whether the valuation model of traditional enterprise value is applicable to Internet enterprise value assessment. B. Literature review In the literature, the research on the relationship between free cash flow and corporate value of enterprises focuses on traditional enterprises or enterprises related to traditional industries. For example, Rubei, Nanjing University of Finance and Economics, uses the free cash flow discount model to study the value of enterprises [1]. Han Xingguo, School of Economics and Management, Inner Mongolia University of Science and Technology, takes Yili as the research object and evaluates the value of the company through the free cash flow discount model [2]. Shanghai University of International Business and Economics School of Finance and Management, Geng Shangzhou, Wang Yazhen, Cai Yuxin, based on the user traffic estimation model and the Metcalfe law proposed by Robert Metcalf for the network value analysis, evaluated the ecological value of LeEco [3]. Based on the value creation perspective, Professor Xuan Xiao and Duan Wenqi consider both financial performance and non-financial performance. Through the four key channels of efficiency, locking, complementarity and innovation, they have six capabilities from operation, profitability, growth, users, collaboration and management. Starting from the dimension, the overall conceptual framework of enterprise value creation on the Internet platform was built [4]. Tian Wuxing and Dai Shuangshuang proposed to shift from traditionally relying solely on financial data to non-financial value standards such as users, brands and human resources [5]. Zhu Lei proposes to use non-financial data to help transform banks [6]. At present, scholars' research on the value of Internet enterprises has gradually turned to the evaluation of the value of Internet enterprises based on non-financial data of enterprises. The research on traditional financial value of enterprises has declined, but the traditional three financial statements are still relatively mature systems. With the booming development of the Internet industry, this article chooses Jinshan Software. As a research object, Jinshan Software has been listed since 2007, and its business operations are in good condition. Financial data are disclosed in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. II. FREE CASH FLOW DISCOUNT THEORY MODEL As early as the 1980s, the new concept of free cash flow was proposed by scholars such as Alfred Rabaport of the United States and De Jensen (1982) of Harvard University. The free cash flow of an enterprise is the cash flow that can be allocated to the investors who provide capital to the enterprise to the greatest extent. It is derived from the cash flow generated by the enterprise in daily operations, after deducting the income tax and the investment funds needed for the enterprise to reproduce. The calculation formula is: company value
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