Exploring Back-end Sentencing: A Study of Predictors of Parole Revocation through a Focal Concerns Theoretical Framework

Parole revocation, the process of returning individuals to incarceration due to non-compliance with conditions of community supervision, contributes to mass incarceration and is tied to the complex process of back-end sentencing. This discretionary decision is typically opaque, and theoretical understanding is limited. Applying the focal concerns framework, this study employs population-level data from an American jurisdiction on individuals who are on parole and have violated their supervision (n = 13,121). We found that practical, extralegal considerations such as the amount of time left on parole, the number of programs geared toward people on parole, and whether they participated in community programs after release from prison significantly influenced back-end sentencing. These results question the assumed relationship between individual-level and systemic factors during revocations while also providing empirical support for broadening the scope of theoretically relevant domains.