Forecasting Airline Passenger Demand for the Long-Haul Route: The Case of Garuda Indonesia

: This paper discusses the forecasting of passenger demand for the long-haul route at Garuda Indonesia, which is the legacy air carrier of Indonesia. We focus on routes with the largest share, namely China and Saudi Arabia. We use two forecasting models for this purpose. First is a regression model with the population in each country as the independent variable, and second is the Winter's model that is suitable for data with trend and seasonality characteristics, such as airline passenger. The performance of both methods is analysed using forecast errors, which are a mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute deviation (MAD), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Tracking Signal. The results show that Winter's model is more suitable for the China route, while the regression model is more suitable for Saudi Arabia route. The forecasting results for 2019-2028 show a significant growth of passengers for both routes that must be anticipated by the company.