A mathematical analysis of the socio-economic impacts of a patent waiver on COVID-19 vaccines

We perform a calibrated mathematical analysis of the potential impacts of a patent waiver on COVID-19 vaccines. In the model, we schematically divide nations into high- and low-income, the latter accounting for 80% of the world population but currently using only 60% of the vaccine production. We show that a significant increase in vaccine production combined with a more equitable distribution—made possible by an intellectual property (IP) waiver—would have stopped the pandemic in 18 months of vaccination and saved more than ten million people, mostly in poor countries, compared with five years of the current scenario in which the virus becomes endemic. We hypothesize the peak rollout capacity shown by high-income countries at the beginning of the vaccination campaign and half of that capacity for low-income ones. We even show that the money saved on vaccines globally in the hypothetical IP-waiver scenario overcomes the actual value of the 5-yr profits of the big pharma in the current situation. This profit loss could be immediately covered (mostly by the expected saving of high-income countries) in exchange for the waiver.