年轻人住房拥有率下降的原因

Yuxi Yao
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引用次数: 5

摘要

自1976年以来,美国年轻家庭的住房拥有率显著下降。一项对大学和非大学家庭的购房年龄特征的研究表明,虽然大学毕业生推迟了购房,但很大一部分非大学毕业生已成为永久租房者。本文表明,大学毕业生和非大学毕业生之间的住房拥有率差异动态可以用住房的非弹性供应、大学毕业生人口比例较高以及大学毕业生和非大学毕业生之间家庭收入差距扩大所导致的收入分配变化来解释。收入分配的变化推高了住房总需求,导致房价上涨。因此,非大学毕业生发现买房更难负担,而收入水平较高的大学毕业生则推迟购房。利用1980年至2010年间美国105个最大城市的数据,我发现拥有更多大学毕业生的城市往往拥有更高的当地房价,大学和非大学家庭的年轻住房拥有率更低,中年人的住房拥有率更低,尤其是非大学家庭。此外,大学毕业生家庭收入的增加进一步推高了当地房价,降低了非大学毕业生的住房自有率。收入分配的变化可以解释大部分观察到的大学和非大学毕业生中青年住房拥有率的变化。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Accounting for the Decline in Homeownership Among the Young
Homeownership rate for young households in the United States has declined significantly since 1976. An examination of the ownership-age profile of college and non-college households suggests that while college graduates are postponing home purchasing, a large fraction of non-college graduates have become permanent renters. This paper shows that the diverging homeownership dynamics between college and non-college graduates can be accounted for by an inelastic supply of houses combined with a change in the income distribution due to a higher population share of college graduates and a widening gap in household income between college and non-college graduates. The change in the income distribution drives up aggregate housing demand and leads to higher house prices. As a result, non-college graduates find owning less affordable while college graduates with steeper earning profile postpone home purchasing. Using data for the 105 largest metropolitan areas in the U.S. over 1980 to 2010, I find that cities with more college graduates tend to have higher local house prices, lower young homeownership rate for both college and non-college households, and lower middle-aged homeownership rates especially among the non-college households. Moreover, a rise in the household income of college graduates further increases local housing price and lowers homeownership rates for non-college graduates. The changing income distribution can account for the majority of the observed changes in young and middle-aged homeownership rates for both college and non-college graduates.
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