污染案例中的代理人选择与威胁实现:从肇事者行为预测行动

Sarah C. Kilbane
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引用次数: 2

摘要

虽然对该主题的现有研究很少,但以前的工作表明,犯罪分子和恐怖分子对供应链的故意恶意污染被认为是一个实质性的威胁(食品安全和应用营养中心,2001;世界卫生组织,2008年)。真正的污染事件有可能造成大规模伤亡,尽管空洞的威胁往往足以引起公众的恐惧,并导致相当大的经济损失。虽然空洞的威胁往往与造成污染的威胁难以区分,但人们认为,在犯罪者通信中确定的某些变量可能有助于将空洞的威胁与将实现的威胁区分开来。因此,这项研究试图确定肇事者报告的药剂选择是否可以为未来事件中实际污染的可能性提供功能预测。研究结果表明,化学制剂本身更可能与真正的污染有关,而声称单独使用生物制剂以及化学、生物和放射性核制剂的联合使用更经常与空洞的威胁有关。这些发现的效用将被讨论,以及对未来研究的建议。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Agent Selection and Threat Actualization in Contamination Cases: Predicting Action From Perpetrator Behavior
Although existing research on the topic is sparse, previous works have shown that there is believed to be a substantial threat of intentional, malicious contamination of the supply chain by criminals and terrorists (Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition, 2001; World Health Organization, 2008). Genuine contamination incidents have the potential to result in mass casualties, although empty threats are often enough to generate public fear and lead to considerable economic damage. Although empty threats often appear indistinguishable from those which will result in contamination, it is thought that certain variables identified in perpetrator communications may be able to help separate empty threats from those that will be actualized. This research thus attempts to determine whether a perpetrator’s reported choice of agent could offer functional predictions for the likelihood of actual contamination in future incidents. Findings indicate that chemical agents alone are more likely to be associated with genuine contamination, whereas the claimed use of biological agents alone as well as chemical, biological, and radionuclear agents combined are more often associated with empty threats. The utility of these findings will be discussed, as well as suggestions for future research.
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