疫苗合理分配方案

Yiran Niu, Zhenyang Zhang, Qianling Shui
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摘要

在后疫情时代,接种疫苗已成为保护广大公众的重要措施。在本文中,我们使用ARIMA模型,通过分析疫苗接种率和居民数量的数据,考虑到各种实际因素,并结合当前的时代状态,预测未来三个月全国每天的疫苗接种率。合理建立指标,将分配问题转化为评价各指标重要性的问题,利用模拟退火算法求解城市、社区、城镇的疫苗分配比例,给出合理的疫苗分配方案,具体见模型描述。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Vaccine Rational Distribution Program
In the post-epidemic era, vaccination has become an important measure to protect the general public. In this paper, we use an ARIMA model to predict the daily number of vaccinations nationwide for the next three months by analyzing data on vaccination rates as well as the number of inhabitants, taking into account a variety of practical factors, in conjunction with the current state of the times. Indicators are rationally established, and the distribution problem is transformed into a problem of evaluating the importance of each indicator, using a simulated annealing algorithm to solve for vaccine distribution ratios for cities, neighborhoods, and towns, and to provide a reasonable vaccine distribution plan, as detailed in the model description.
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