考虑可再生能源出力和负荷不确定性的综合能源系统功率概率能量流计算

Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on High Performance Compilation, Computing and Communications Pub Date : 2022-06-23 DOI:10.1145/3546000.3546031

Di Jin, Chenhang Sun, Zhiyi Yang, Ruifa Cao, Zhigang Zhang

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引用次数: 0

摘要

可再生能源的间歇性输出和负荷波动给综合能源系统带来了诸多不确定性。为此，本文提出了一种考虑可再生能源输出和负荷不确定性的综合能源系统功率概率能量流计算方法。首先，基于能量枢纽模型构建了电-热-气一体化能源系统的稳态能量流计算模型;在此基础上，考虑可再生能源输出和负荷的不确定性，针对电力的概率能流，提出了一种基于准蒙特卡罗模拟法的综合能源系统概率能流计算方法。最后，通过算例分析验证了计算方法的准确性。

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Power Probabilistic Energy Flow Calculation for Integrated Energy System Considering Uncertainties of Renewable Energy Output and Load

The intermittent output of renewable energy and the load fluctuation bring many uncertainties to the integrated energy system. Therefore, this paper proposes a power probabilistic energy flow calculation method for integrated energy systems considering renewable energy output and load uncertainty. Firstly, the electricity-heat-gas integrated energy system's steady-state energy flow calculation model is constructed based on the energy hub model. On this basis, considering the uncertainty of renewable energy output and load, a probabilistic energy flow calculation method for integrated energy systems based on the Quasi-Monte Carlo simulation method is proposed for the probabilistic energy flow of electricity. Finally, the accuracy of the calculation method is verified by an example analysis.

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Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on High Performance Compilation, Computing and Communications

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