Human judgement and software metrics: vision for the future

Background: There has been much research into building formal (metrics-based) prediction systems with the aim of improving resource estimation and planning of software projects. However the 'objectivity' of such systems is illusory in the sense that many inputs need themselves to be estimated by the software engineer. Method: We review the uptake of past software project prediction research and identify relevant cognitive psychology research on expert behaviour. In particular we explore potential applications of recent metacognition research. Results: We find the human aspect is largely ignored, despite the availability of many important results from cognitive psychology. Conclusions: In order to increase the actual use of our metrics research e.g. effort prediction systems we need to have a more integrated view of how such research might be used and who might be using it. This leads to our belief that future research must be more holistic and inter-disciplinary.