通过机器学习预测模型实现特定天气预报

I-Ching Chen, Shueh-Cheng Hu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对于一般人来说,更方便的是了解特定地点和特定时间的天气情况。然而,目前气象观测机构提供的天气预报服务只能提供大范围或粗粒度的预报。这项研究工作试图利用历史天气观测数据和机器学习(ML)技术来建立能够实现特定天气预报的模型。采用不同的模型设置,从训练成本和预测质量两方面对相应的结果进行了比较和分析。初步结果表明,支持机器学习的预测模型可以作为需要了解细粒度是否条件的人的补充来源。为了提高机器学习预测模型的质量,除了更多的微调和算法更新之外,大量的长期历史天气数据至关重要,因为气候变化在很大程度上具有微妙的周期性特征。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Realizing Specific Weather Forecast through Machine Learning Enabled Prediction Model
To general people, it is more convenient to know weather condition at a specific location and particular time. However, current weather forecasting services offered by meteorological observation organizations only provide a wide-range or coarse-grained forecast. This research work tried to utilize historical weather observation data and machine learning (ML) techniques to build models enabling specific weather forecast. Different settings of models were applied and the corresponding results were compared and analyzed in terms of training cost and prediction quality. The preliminary results indicate that the ML-enabled forecast model can serve as a supplementary source for people who need to know finer-grained whether condition. To improve the quality of the ML forecasting models, besides more fine-tuning and algorithms renovation, large volume of long-term historical weather data are critical since climate changes to a large extent, possess subtle periodical characteristics.
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