如果没有战争:基辅州维什戈罗夫斯基区的人口指标预测

N. Gunko, O. G. Kukush, A. A. Melekestseva
{"title":"如果没有战争:基辅州维什戈罗夫斯基区的人口指标预测","authors":"N. Gunko, O. G. Kukush, A. A. Melekestseva","doi":"10.15407/dse2022.03.046","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Demographic processes have been disturbed on those Ukrainian territories which have undergone occupation as a result of Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine. However, in order to rebuild such territories, local authorities need information on the prospects of demographic situation. Therefore, determining possible information sources and choosing models to forecast demographic indicators for local communities is relevant. The purpose of this work is identifying possible information sources and choosing models to predict demographic indicators for local communities; forecasting of population numbers, birth rate and mortality via splines for Vyshgorodsky district, Kyiv oblast communities. Novelty: forecasting of demographic indicators for local communities via spline functions. It has been shown that retrospective demographic research at local communities level is possible, if the communities’ contemporary borders correspond to the past administrative and territorial division. However, there are certain limitations regarding the indicators set. The analysis of 1979-2020 data on population numbers, birth rate and mortality for Ivankivsky and Polisky local communities has shown that the 1986-1988 data cannot be used for forecasting, since it varies considerably. This has been caused by the evacuation of residents from Chornobyl Exclusion Zone and administrative and territorial changes. The usage of spline functions in forecasting has shown that splines which have 5-7 knots are optimal. The most adequate forecasts of population numbers can be obtained via cubic splines, whereas the most trustworthy forecasts of birth rate and mortality – via linear continuous splines. It has been determined that the last years’ trends in population numbers, birth rate and mortality would continue in Vyshgorodsky district, Kyiv oblast local communities during 2021-2024. Due to hostilities on the territory of the district, there is no true data on demographic situation, and actual data may turn out to be far from the forecasted because of families with children emigration and mortality growth. Further research to improve the methodology of demographic forecasting by taking into account accidents that cause unfavorable demographic consequences is necessary.","PeriodicalId":210079,"journal":{"name":"Demography and social economy","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2022-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"If There Were No War: Demographic Indicators Forecast for Vyshgorodsky District, Kyiv Oblast\",\"authors\":\"N. Gunko, O. G. Kukush, A. A. Melekestseva\",\"doi\":\"10.15407/dse2022.03.046\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Demographic processes have been disturbed on those Ukrainian territories which have undergone occupation as a result of Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine. However, in order to rebuild such territories, local authorities need information on the prospects of demographic situation. Therefore, determining possible information sources and choosing models to forecast demographic indicators for local communities is relevant. The purpose of this work is identifying possible information sources and choosing models to predict demographic indicators for local communities; forecasting of population numbers, birth rate and mortality via splines for Vyshgorodsky district, Kyiv oblast communities. Novelty: forecasting of demographic indicators for local communities via spline functions. It has been shown that retrospective demographic research at local communities level is possible, if the communities’ contemporary borders correspond to the past administrative and territorial division. However, there are certain limitations regarding the indicators set. The analysis of 1979-2020 data on population numbers, birth rate and mortality for Ivankivsky and Polisky local communities has shown that the 1986-1988 data cannot be used for forecasting, since it varies considerably. This has been caused by the evacuation of residents from Chornobyl Exclusion Zone and administrative and territorial changes. The usage of spline functions in forecasting has shown that splines which have 5-7 knots are optimal. The most adequate forecasts of population numbers can be obtained via cubic splines, whereas the most trustworthy forecasts of birth rate and mortality – via linear continuous splines. It has been determined that the last years’ trends in population numbers, birth rate and mortality would continue in Vyshgorodsky district, Kyiv oblast local communities during 2021-2024. Due to hostilities on the territory of the district, there is no true data on demographic situation, and actual data may turn out to be far from the forecasted because of families with children emigration and mortality growth. Further research to improve the methodology of demographic forecasting by taking into account accidents that cause unfavorable demographic consequences is necessary.\",\"PeriodicalId\":210079,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Demography and social economy\",\"volume\":\"1 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2022-11-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Demography and social economy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2022.03.046\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Demography and social economy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.15407/dse2022.03.046","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

由于俄罗斯联邦对乌克兰的战争而被占领的乌克兰领土上的人口进程受到干扰。但是,为了重建这些领土,地方当局需要关于人口状况前景的资料。因此,确定可能的信息来源和选择模型来预测当地社区的人口指标是相关的。这项工作的目的是确定可能的信息来源和选择模型来预测当地社区的人口指标;通过样条曲线预测基辅州维什戈罗兹基区社区的人口数量、出生率和死亡率。新颖性:通过样条函数预测当地社区的人口指标。已经表明,如果社区的当代边界符合过去的行政和领土划分,那么在地方社区一级进行回顾性人口研究是可能的。但是,所设定的指标有一定的局限性。对1979-2020年Ivankivsky和Polisky地方社区人口数量、出生率和死亡率数据的分析表明,1986-1988年的数据不能用于预测,因为差异很大。这是由于居民从切尔诺贝利禁区撤离以及行政和领土变化造成的。样条函数在预测中的应用表明,具有5-7个结点的样条函数是最优的。最充分的人口数量预测可以通过三次样条获得,而最可靠的出生率和死亡率预测-通过线性连续样条。已确定,在2021-2024年期间,基辅州维什戈罗兹基区地方社区的人口数量、出生率和死亡率将继续保持过去几年的趋势。由于该地区领土上的敌对行动,没有关于人口情况的真实数据,由于有儿童的家庭移徙和死亡率上升,实际数据可能与预测相差甚远。有必要进一步研究改进人口预测方法,将造成不利人口后果的事故考虑在内。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
If There Were No War: Demographic Indicators Forecast for Vyshgorodsky District, Kyiv Oblast
Demographic processes have been disturbed on those Ukrainian territories which have undergone occupation as a result of Russian Federation’s war against Ukraine. However, in order to rebuild such territories, local authorities need information on the prospects of demographic situation. Therefore, determining possible information sources and choosing models to forecast demographic indicators for local communities is relevant. The purpose of this work is identifying possible information sources and choosing models to predict demographic indicators for local communities; forecasting of population numbers, birth rate and mortality via splines for Vyshgorodsky district, Kyiv oblast communities. Novelty: forecasting of demographic indicators for local communities via spline functions. It has been shown that retrospective demographic research at local communities level is possible, if the communities’ contemporary borders correspond to the past administrative and territorial division. However, there are certain limitations regarding the indicators set. The analysis of 1979-2020 data on population numbers, birth rate and mortality for Ivankivsky and Polisky local communities has shown that the 1986-1988 data cannot be used for forecasting, since it varies considerably. This has been caused by the evacuation of residents from Chornobyl Exclusion Zone and administrative and territorial changes. The usage of spline functions in forecasting has shown that splines which have 5-7 knots are optimal. The most adequate forecasts of population numbers can be obtained via cubic splines, whereas the most trustworthy forecasts of birth rate and mortality – via linear continuous splines. It has been determined that the last years’ trends in population numbers, birth rate and mortality would continue in Vyshgorodsky district, Kyiv oblast local communities during 2021-2024. Due to hostilities on the territory of the district, there is no true data on demographic situation, and actual data may turn out to be far from the forecasted because of families with children emigration and mortality growth. Further research to improve the methodology of demographic forecasting by taking into account accidents that cause unfavorable demographic consequences is necessary.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
确定
请完成安全验证×
copy
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
右上角分享
点击右上角分享
0
联系我们:info@booksci.cn Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。 Copyright © 2023 布克学术 All rights reserved.
京ICP备2023020795号-1
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术官方微信