基于多诱发因素的滑坡预测

Li Zhou, Ying Zhu, Shanwen Guan, Xiyan Sun, Xiaonan Luo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

中国是滑坡灾害频发的国家,三峡库区是滑坡灾害多发区和重灾区。GPS地表位移监测是滑坡稳定性监测的重要手段。本文提出了一种基于多诱发因素的滑坡预测方法。首先,采用逐步回归分析方法,得到滑坡的主导诱发因素。对诱发因素逐一进行处理,影响较大的保留,影响较大的剔除。然后,利用CEEMDAN法对各诱发因子进行分解,利用灰色关联分析法剔除影响较小的分量。本文以三峡库区树坪滑坡为例。采用遗传算法对ELM模型进行优化,然后将优化的诱导因子作为模型的输入。实验结果表明,该模型预测误差较小,拟合系数达到0.98。该模型对滑坡预测具有较好的效果。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Landslide Prediction Based on Multiple Inducing Factors
China is a country with frequent landslide disasters, and the Three Gorges Reservoir area is a landslide disaster-prone area and a serious disaster area. GPS surface displacement monitoring is an important means of landslide stability monitoring. In this paper, we present a novel landslide prediction method based on multiple inducing factors. Firstly, stepwise regression analysis is applied to obtain dominant inducing factors of the landslide. The inducing factors will be processed one by one: the one with significant impact will be retained while the others will be eliminated. Then, each inducing factor will be decomposed by CEEMDAN method, and the components with less influence are eliminated by the gray correlation analysis method. This paper takes the Shuping landslide in the Three Gorges reservoir area as an example. the ELM model is optimized by genetic algorithm, and then the induced factors of optimization are used as input of the model. The experimental results show that the prediction error of the model is relatively small, and the fitting coefficient reaches 0.98. The proposed model has a good effect on landslide prediction.
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