{"title":"理性预期在任何连贯的、现有的概率论中都没有基础","authors":"M. E. Brady","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3257245","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The theory of rational expectations has no foundation in any extant theory of probability. None of the five existing theories of probability (Logical, Subjective, Classical, Propensity, and Limiting (relative) Frequency) lend any support at all to the Muthian conjecture that the subjective probability distributions are distributed about an objective, true probability distribution. This statement is incoherent and incomprehensible because in all subjective theories of probability there are no objective theories of probability, while in all objective theories of probability there are no subjective probability distributions.","PeriodicalId":176096,"journal":{"name":"Economic History eJournal","volume":"20 2","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2018-09-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"5","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Rational Expectations Has No Foundation in Any Coherent, Existing Theory of Probability\",\"authors\":\"M. E. Brady\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.3257245\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The theory of rational expectations has no foundation in any extant theory of probability. None of the five existing theories of probability (Logical, Subjective, Classical, Propensity, and Limiting (relative) Frequency) lend any support at all to the Muthian conjecture that the subjective probability distributions are distributed about an objective, true probability distribution. This statement is incoherent and incomprehensible because in all subjective theories of probability there are no objective theories of probability, while in all objective theories of probability there are no subjective probability distributions.\",\"PeriodicalId\":176096,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Economic History eJournal\",\"volume\":\"20 2\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2018-09-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"5\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Economic History eJournal\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3257245\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economic History eJournal","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3257245","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Rational Expectations Has No Foundation in Any Coherent, Existing Theory of Probability
The theory of rational expectations has no foundation in any extant theory of probability. None of the five existing theories of probability (Logical, Subjective, Classical, Propensity, and Limiting (relative) Frequency) lend any support at all to the Muthian conjecture that the subjective probability distributions are distributed about an objective, true probability distribution. This statement is incoherent and incomprehensible because in all subjective theories of probability there are no objective theories of probability, while in all objective theories of probability there are no subjective probability distributions.
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