股指期货对股市波动的影响

Z. Jianfeng, Zhang Li, Chang Qing
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摘要

本文以沪深300指数2008年4月16日至2011年4月16日的日收盘价为基础,构建GARCH模型,研究股指期货交易引入后中国股市波动率是否出现显著变化。实证分析表明,引入股指期货后,新信息对股市波动的影响减弱,旧信息对市场的影响增强。结论是股指期货的推出降低了现货市场的波动性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The effect of stock index futures to stock market volatility
Based on daily closing price of Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 Index from 16st April 2008 to 16st April 2011, the paper constructs the GARCH model in order to study whether the Chinese stock markets show some significant change in the volatility after the introduction of stock index futures trading. The empirical analysis shows that the new information weakens the effect of the volatility of stock market, and the effect of old information on the market increases after the introduction of stock index futures. The conclusion is that the launch of stock index futures decreases the volatility of spot market.
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