Analysis of Impacts of Autonomous Vehicles and Car-sharing on Spatial Configuration in Urban Areas: Focusing on Parking Demand

The emergence of autonomous vehicles(AVs) is expected to bring about dramatic changes in our cities, especially in the use of urban space caused by changes in parking demand. Although recent studies have attempted to estimate possible changes, not many quantitative studies have been done. Against this backdrop, our study aims to develop a set of scenarios, build a forecasting model for parking space, and analyze the changes in parking space for the case of Seoul Metropolitan Area. To this end, five scenarios have been identified based on literature review and the coefficients of the forecasting model for parking demand have been obtained using a log-linear model. In addition, relative availability of parking space has been assessed by comparing the current status with estimated parking demand. Our simulation results show that the impact of AVs on parking demand is heterogenous: if the supply of AVs increases without their sharing, parking demand would rather increase, while if they are shared, parking demand could decrease compared to BAU(Business-as-usual).