气候变化的极端天气影响:归因视角

B. Clarke, F. Otto, R. Stuart‐Smith, L. Harrington
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引用次数: 84

摘要

极端事件归因旨在阐明全球气候变化、极端天气事件以及人类、财产和自然在地面上所遭受的危害之间的联系。因此,它可以将极端天气的不同驱动因素与人为引起的气候变化区分开来,从而为适应气候变化和评估损失和损害提供有价值的信息。但是,目前还无法系统地提供这种评估。这是由于归因科学的局限性,包括研究不同类型事件的能力,以及气候和影响数据可用性的地理异质性。在这里,我们回顾了气候变化对五种不同极端天气灾害(极端温度、强降雨、干旱、野火、热带气旋)的影响,每种类型的最近极端天气事件的影响,以及各种影响可归因于气候变化的程度。例如,由于气候变化,全球极端高温的可能性和强度都有所增加,直接导致数万人死亡。由于中低收入国家获得的影响信息有限,这一数字很可能被严重低估。与此同时,热带气旋降雨和风暴潮高度在个别事件和所有盆地都有所增加。在北大西洋盆地,气候变化放大了降雨事件,这些事件加起来造成了5000亿美元的损失。与此同时,世界许多地区的严重干旱并不是气候变化造成的。为了提高我们对气候变化发展对当今极端天气影响的认识,需要在几个层面上进行研究。这些措施包括改进对世界各地极端天气影响的记录,提高不同事件和地区归因研究的覆盖面,以及利用归因研究来探索气候和非气候驱动因素对影响的贡献。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective
Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and the harms experienced on the ground by people, property, and nature. It therefore allows the disentangling of different drivers of extreme weather from human-induced climate change and hence provides valuable information to adapt to climate change and to assess loss and damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out of reach. This is due to limitations in attribution science, including the capacity for studying different types of events, as well as the geographical heterogeneity of both climate and impact data availability. Here, we review current knowledge of the influences of climate change on five different extreme weather hazards (extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones), the impacts of recent extreme weather events of each type, and thus the degree to which various impacts are attributable to climate change. For instance, heat extremes have increased in likelihood and intensity worldwide due to climate change, with tens of thousands of deaths directly attributable. This is likely a significant underestimate due to the limited availability of impact information in lower- and middle-income countries. Meanwhile, tropical cyclone rainfall and storm surge height have increased for individual events and across all basins. In the North Atlantic basin, climate change amplified the rainfall of events that, combined, caused half a trillion USD in damages. At the same time, severe droughts in many parts of the world are not attributable to climate change. To advance our understanding of present-day extreme weather impacts due to climate change developments on several levels are required. These include improving the recording of extreme weather impacts around the world, improving the coverage of attribution studies across different events and regions, and using attribution studies to explore the contributions of both climate and non-climate drivers of impacts.
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