为期末现金流量投资的合理性提供一个检验框架

Joseph Thompson, David Neuzil
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引用次数: 0

摘要

无论是使用传统的戈登增长公式还是价值驱动公式,评估师在确定最终价值时通常会忽略检验资本化自由现金流的合理性,从而得出不正确的最终价值。考虑到最终价值在确定权益价值时的重要性,这一点令人不安;在采用现金流量贴现法时,终端价值通常占所得企业价值的大部分。本文的目的是提供一个框架,用于测试用于再投资以支持永续经营的终端现金流量金额的合理性。一般来说,公司对其未来运营进行再投资的潜在领域有三个:(1)净营运资金;(2)购置物业、厂房和设备(PP&E);(3)其他投资(如研究与开发[R&D])。我们的文章概述了在戈登增长公式下分析和计算净营运资本和PP&E投资的适当金额的建议方法。我们还提供了一个示例分析,以说明在应用价值驱动公式时,由费用投资(例如,研发)导致的潜在问题。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Providing a Framework for Testing the Reasonableness of Terminal Period Cash Flow Investments
Whether using the traditional Gordon Growth formula or the value driver formula, it is common for a valuer to neglect testing the reasonableness of the capitalized free cash flow used in determining the terminal value and, therefore, derive a terminal value that is incorrect. This is troubling considering how important the terminal value is when concluding an equity value; the terminal value most often accounts for a majority of the concluded enterprise value when applying the Discounted Cash Flow method. The purpose of this article is to provide a framework for testing the reasonableness of the amount of terminal cash flow that is reinvested to support the operations into perpetuity. In general, there are three potential areas for a company to reinvest into its future operations: (1) net working capital, (2) purchases of property, plant, and equipment (PP&E), and (3) other investments (e.g., research and development [R&D]). Our article provides an overview of a suggested method for analyzing and calculating the appropriate amount of investments in net working capital and PP&E under the Gordon Growth formula. We also provide an example analysis to illustrate potential issues resulting from expensed investments (e.g., R&D) when applying the value driver formula.
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