基于BP神经网络的区域发电量预测

Liu Shuo, Lu Hai, Guo Xiao-peng
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引用次数: 2

摘要

目前,随着中国电力需求的快速增长、电力负荷的波动以及煤价的持续上涨,中国部分地区的电力市场发电侧面临着风险。本文通过引入BP (Back Propagation)神经网络理论,建立了区域发电量预测模型,对煤炭供应、政策影响、天气条件、资源、竞争环境等进行量化,并将其作为网络输入和区域发电量的历史数据作为网络输出进行预测,利用所建立的模型进行计算和分析。结果表明,该预测充分考虑了各种因素,调整了影响因素之间的关系,具有误差小、精度高的优点,是一种有效的区域发电量预测方法。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Prediction of regional power generation based on BP neural network
Presently, with the rapid increase of China's electricity demand, fluctuation of power load as well as the continuous rise in coal prices, the electricity market generation side of some part region of China is facing risk. By the introduction of BP (Back Propagation) neural network theory, this paper established the regional power generation forecasting model, coal supply, policy implications, weather conditions, resources as well as competitive environment are quantified, then it was used as the network input as well as historical data of the regional power generation to forecast regional power generation as network output, calculate and analysis using by the established model. The outcome shows that this prediction was of full consideration of various factors and adjustment of the relationship between impact factors, it has the merits of minor error and high precision, and it is an effective method of regional power generation prediction.
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