恶性通货膨胀下巴西搜索成本的证据:Plano Real的影响

J. Araújo, Mauro Rodrigues
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摘要

1994年,Plano Real结束了恶性通货膨胀,并显著改变了巴西的价格设定行为。本文研究了Plano Real对搜索摩擦的影响。我们估计了一个同质商品的非顺序搜索模型,以结构化地检索消费者的搜索成本。该数据集包括FIPE从1993年到1995年收集的11,673个商店价格报价,用于计算圣保罗市的消费者价格指数(CPI)。该策略包括使用Plano Real作为数据中的结构断点。我们将数据分成计划前(1993年1月至1994年6月)和计划后(1994年8月至1995年12月)对模型进行估计,发现前者的搜索成本分布对后者具有一阶随机优势;也就是说,在恶性通货膨胀期间,搜索成本更高。大多数消费者在购买商品前只搜索一两次,但在恶性通货膨胀期间,这一比例略高(84%对79%)。此外,在Plano Real之后,更大比例的消费者愿意在所有商店报价后才决定购买。我们还记录了该计划对不断缩小的价格成本利润率的影响的证据。当搜索成本降低时,商店就失去了市场支配力。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Evidence on search costs under hyperinflation in Brazil: The effect of Plano Real
Plano Real put an end to hyperinflation in 1994 and significantly altered price-setting behavior in Brazil. This paper investigates the impact of Plano Real on search frictions. We estimate a nonsequential search model for homogeneous goods to structurally retrieve consumers' search costs. The dataset comprises 11,673 store-level price quotes collected from 1993 to 1995 by FIPE to calculate the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the city of São Paulo. The strategy consists of using Plano Real as a structural breakpoint in the data. We estimate the model splitting the data into before (Jan-93 to Jun-94) and after (Aug-94 to Dec-95) the plan, and we find evidence on first-order stochastic dominance of the search-cost distribution of the former into the latter; that is, search costs are higher during hyperinflation. The majority of consumers search only once or twice before buying an item, but this share is marginally higher during hyperinflation (84% vs 79%). In addition, after Plano Real, a larger share of consumers are willing to quote prices in all stores before committing to a purchase. We also document evidence of the effect of the plan on shrinking price-cost margins. When searching is less costly, stores lose market power.
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