急性心肌梗死的短期预后指标。Cox模型多变量分析。

European journal of cardiology Pub Date : 1979-11-01
E B Madsen, S Rasmussen, T L Svendsen
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引用次数: 0

摘要

以生存时间为预后终点对281例急性心肌梗死患者进行了新的多变量逐步线性回归分析(Cox模型)。从冠状动脉监护室前5天发生的18个预后因素中计算出入院后前36天的生存机会的新预后指数。重要的预后变量为心力衰竭、心源性休克、房室传导阻滞和年龄。根据不同的平均指标和预后,将患者分为6个亚组。预后相对较差和较好两大类患者(伴有和不伴有心力衰竭)。超过一半的患者没有预后变量。有一种高估预期死亡人数的趋势。23例(82%)患者明确显示心脏原因死亡。基于这4个变量的预后指数可以预测个体患者的生存机会,这可以作为个性化住院时间的基础。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Short-term prognostic index in acute myocardial infarction. Multivariate analysis by Cox model.

A new multivariate stepwise linear regression analysis (Cox's model) with survival time as prognostic endpoint was utilized in 281 patients with acute myocardial infarction. From 18 prognostic factors occurring during the first 5 days in the Coronary Care Unit a new prognostic index was calculated for the chance of survival in the first 36 days after admission. The significant prognostic variables were heart failure, cardiogenic shock, atrioventricular block and age. The total group of patients was classified in 6 subgroups with different mean indices and prognosis. There were 2 large groups of patients with relative bad and good prognosis (with and without heart failure). Over half of the patients had no prognostic variables. There was a trend of overestimating the expected deaths. A definite cardiac cause of death was shown by 23 patients (82%). This prognostic index based on the 4 variables can for the individual patient predict the chance of survival, which can be the basis of an individualized duration of hospital stay.

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