基于动态博弈模型的新发传染病防控物资供给研究

Danyang Li, D. Sui
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引用次数: 0

摘要

截至2020年2月26日,境外新冠肺炎确诊病例数首次超过国内确诊病例数。因此,新发传染病有可能在全球范围内流行,采取正确措施是遏制疫情蔓延的核心。基于动态博弈模型,分析“防护物资供应部门”随着“疾病传播事件”的动态演变,不断调整其供应策略,意在控制新发传染病进一步传播的过程,并通过对不同策略的计算,为方案的选择提供理论依据。结果表明,在选择政府作为物资供给主体的同时,建立非政府组织、国内外捐助者等参与的资源调度机制,可以有效降低应急管理投入成本。同时,由于疾病的传播特点,防护物资的配置在综合考虑的基础上,对需要防护物资的重点部门和关键环节进行首要资源保障,可以有效避免因病毒传播而造成的成本进一步增加。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Research on the supply of materials for the prevention and control of the emerging infectious diseases-Based on dynamic game model
As of February 26, 2020, the number of new cases of COVID-19 overseas exceeded the number of new cases in China for the first time. Accordingly, emerging infectious diseases have the potential of causing a global epidemic, and taking correct measures is the core of curbing the spread of the epidemic. Based on the dynamic game model, this paper analyzes the "protective material supply department" with the dynamic evolution of the " diseases transmission incident", and constantly adjusts its supply strategy, intending to control the process of further spread of the emerging infectious diseases, and support the selection of the scheme with theoretical basis through the calculation of different strategies. The results show that while choosing the government as the main body of material supply, to establish a resource scheduling mechanism involving non-governmental organizations, domestic and foreign donors, etc. can effectively reduce the input cost of emergency management. At the same time, due to the transmission characteristics of the diseases, the allocation of protective materials on the basis of a comprehensive consideration, the primary resource guarantee for key departments and key links that require protective materials can effectively avoid further increases in costs caused by the spread of the virus.
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