{"title":"结合预测市场和预测竞赛","authors":"Alasdair Brown, J. Reade","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2944675","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Two popular methods for aggregating individual forecasts are prediction markets, where participants bet on the outcome of future events, and forecasting contests, where participants are ranked according to the accuracy of their forecasts. Can these methods be used in concert to produce more accurate forecasts? We analyse 1.79 million forecasts on oddsportal.com, a social network for sports tipsters. Tipsters are ranked according to the betting return on their tips. We find that an aggregation of these tips predicts sporting outcomes, after controlling for betting/prediction market prices. Rank-order forecasting contests, even without tangible prizes, are useful tools for eliciting crowd forecasts.","PeriodicalId":308524,"journal":{"name":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Forecasting (Topic)","volume":"35 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2017-04-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Combining Prediction Markets and Forecasting Contests\",\"authors\":\"Alasdair Brown, J. Reade\",\"doi\":\"10.2139/ssrn.2944675\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Two popular methods for aggregating individual forecasts are prediction markets, where participants bet on the outcome of future events, and forecasting contests, where participants are ranked according to the accuracy of their forecasts. Can these methods be used in concert to produce more accurate forecasts? We analyse 1.79 million forecasts on oddsportal.com, a social network for sports tipsters. Tipsters are ranked according to the betting return on their tips. We find that an aggregation of these tips predicts sporting outcomes, after controlling for betting/prediction market prices. Rank-order forecasting contests, even without tangible prizes, are useful tools for eliciting crowd forecasts.\",\"PeriodicalId\":308524,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Forecasting (Topic)\",\"volume\":\"35 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2017-04-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"1\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Forecasting (Topic)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2944675\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"ERN: Other Econometrics: Applied Econometric Modeling in Forecasting (Topic)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2944675","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Combining Prediction Markets and Forecasting Contests
Two popular methods for aggregating individual forecasts are prediction markets, where participants bet on the outcome of future events, and forecasting contests, where participants are ranked according to the accuracy of their forecasts. Can these methods be used in concert to produce more accurate forecasts? We analyse 1.79 million forecasts on oddsportal.com, a social network for sports tipsters. Tipsters are ranked according to the betting return on their tips. We find that an aggregation of these tips predicts sporting outcomes, after controlling for betting/prediction market prices. Rank-order forecasting contests, even without tangible prizes, are useful tools for eliciting crowd forecasts.
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