Time-Series Analysis on the Impact Level upon Taiwan Stock Market with Events of Signing International Agreements

Stock investment is one of the available conventional financial commodities in the investment market. The individual price of stocks including stocks in the field of industrial, medical, financial, overall, etc. Is subject to many different aspects. The relationship between aspects, the international economy, and the stock price is complex and is not easy to be categorized. Moreover, the trend of the world increases the cooperation and links between countries and different nations. Many agreements in tourism, trade, etc. Are signed between countries. In this paper, we focus on the effect on the stock prices caused by the agreements signed between Taiwan and other countries. The time series method is utilized to analyze the effect on the stock price forecasting caused by 5 of the incidents including WTO, Taiwan-Nicaragua FTA, Taiwan-Honduras FTA, and Taiwan-Japan BIA. Both the pre-event and the post-event periods are included for observing the fluctuation behavior of the stock market price. The MAPE value is used as the criterion to verify the correctness of the forecasting result. The MAPE values obtained in all experiments are all less than 10%. It implies that the time series method presents good forecasting ability in the analyzed cases.