Cycles and Subsystems

Most accounts of the emergence of new parties are episodic, but to understand the rise and breakthrough of new parties in Central Europe requires an understanding of the links between party death and party birth, between one cohort of new parties and the next. Parties proclaiming their novelty, anti-corruption appeals, and the celebrity of their leader usually do not survive for long. Their death creates space for a newer party to emerge and break through. This chapter illustrates the dynamic in terms of a new party subsystem. Tracing the movement of voters from one election to the next offers clear evidence that once voters have chosen a new party in one election, they are more likely to choose a newer party in the subsequent election. Computer simulations help to illustrate the dynamics of new party emergence and gauge the impact of specific factors in explaining new party emergence.