流行病学数学模型的比较分析——解释金融市场羊群效应的适应性

S. Tomar
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引用次数: 0

摘要

用数学模型来解释传染病的传播有不同的方法。流行病学研究中常用Cox、B样条、SIR和传播概率等模型来解释羊群效应。大部分研究表明这些模型在流行病学研究中的使用。本文试图找出选择特定模型的合理性。收集到的数据样本可以被左截断,右截断,间隔检查,类似地,模型中拟合数据集所需的近似值可能不同。本文试图找到一个合适的模型来描述金融市场中的羊群现象。其中一个关键发现是,由于在股市崩盘或银行挤兑中存在左截断数据,因此最好使用B样条模型。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Comparative Analysis of Mathematical Models in Epidemiology - There Adaptation to Explain Herding in Financial Markets
There are different approaches in the use of mathematical model to explain the spread of infectious disease. In epidemiological study the models like Cox,B Spline, SIR and Transmission probability are used to explain herding effect. Bulk of the studies shows the use of these models in Epidemiological research. This paper tries to find the rational of choosing particular models. The collected data sample could be left truncated, right truncated, interval censured and similarly the approximation required to fit the dataset in models could be different. This paper tries to find out the appropriate model which can be used to describe herding phenomena in case of financial market. One of the key finding is that it is better to use B spline model due to the present of left truncated data in a stock market crash or in a bank run.
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