国内生产总值时间序列预测中的机器学习技术

Georgios N. Kouziokas
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引用次数: 6

摘要

近年来,随着新的机器学习技术的发展,人工智能在许多科学领域取得了进展。在本研究中,提出了一种用于国内生产总值(GDP)时间序列预测的机器学习方法。运用人工神经网络建立国内生产总值预测模型。考虑到前馈多层感知器(FFMLP)最适合时间序列预测,提出了一种前馈多层感知器(FFMLP)。为了建立最优的预测模型,通过测试不同的传递函数和隐藏层中不同数量的神经元来检验几种网络拓扑结构。结果表明,对国内生产总值水平的预测具有非常精确的准确性。提出的基于机器学习的技术在公共和财务管理方面非常有帮助。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Machine Learning Technique in Time Series Prediction of Gross Domestic Product
Artificial intelligence is gaining ground the last years in many scientific sectors with the development of new machine learning techniques. In this research, a machine learning methodology is proposed in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) time series forecasting. Artificial Neural Networks are implemented in order to develop forecasting models for predicting the Gross Domestic Product. A Feedforward Multilayer Perceptron (FFMLP) was implemented since it is considered as the most suitable in times series forecasting. In order to develop the optimal forecasting model, several network topologies were examined by testing different transfer functions and also different number of neurons in the hidden layers. The results have shown a very precise prediction accuracy regarding the levels of Gross Domestic Product. The proposed technique based on machine learning can be very helpful in public and financial management.
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