在新凯恩斯主义模型中,通货膨胀容忍度是有范围的

Banque de France RPS Submitter, Hervé le Bihan, M. Marx, J. Matheron
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引用次数: 4

摘要

发达国家的许多央行在制定货币政策策略时,都采用通胀目标的区间或区间。在美联储和欧洲央行评估其策略的背景下,一些政策制定者提议采用这样的区间。使用标准的新凯恩斯宏观经济模型,我们分析了容忍范围政策的后果,其特点是当通货膨胀处于范围之外时,央行对通货膨胀的反应比接近目标(即区间的中心值)时更强烈。我们证明(i)容忍带不应该是一个非作用区:在容忍带内缺乏反应会危及宏观经济稳定并导致多重平衡的可能性;(ii)区间外所需的反应与区间内所需的反应之间的权衡似乎是不利的:当通胀远离目标时,需要非常强烈的反应来补偿容差区间内适度较低的反应;(iii)在程式化模型框架内获得的这些结果对许多变化都具有鲁棒性,特别是考虑到下界为零。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Inflation tolerance ranges in the New Keynesian model
A number of central banks in advanced countries use ranges, or bands, around their inflation
target to formulate their monetary policy strategy. The adoption of such ranges has been
proposed by some policymakers in the context of the Fed and the ECB reviews of their
strategies. Using a standard New Keynesian macroeconomic model, we analyze the
consequences of tolerance range policies, characterized by a stronger reaction of the central
bank to inflation when inflation lies outside the range than when it is close to the target, ie
the central value of the band. We show that (i) a tolerance band should not be a zone of
inaction: the lack of reaction within the band endangers macroeconomic stability and leads
to the possibility of multiple equilibria; (ii) the trade-off between the reaction needed outside
the range versus inside seems unfavorable: a very strong reaction, when inflation is far from
the target, is required to compensate a moderately lower reaction within tolerance band; (iii)
these results, obtained within the framework of a stylized model, are robust to many
alterations, in particular allowing for the zero lower bound.
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