NPM: An Anti-attacking Analysis Model of the MTD system Based on Martingale Theory

Moving target defense (MTD) techniques are effective solutions to improve the network security by continuously reconfiguring the system setting. On the other hand, continuously transforming also increase the cost of defenders, so it is important to analyze the effectiveness of MTDs compared with their cost. Current researches lack of analyzing the effectiveness by mathematical theory compared with analyzing by experiment. Motivated by the above, we propose a novel three-dimension model named NPM jointly use N-version programming, Poisson process, Markov chain and martingale theory to analyze the effectiveness of the proposed MTD model. Our analysis points out the difficulty for a successful adversary to defeat the MTD system, which is related to the system configuration, such as the number of executors and the judgment criterion in every node, the transforming period and rang of system MTD transformation. Finally, we give advices on the design of the system in the daily defense and the attacked defense, with the goal of guaranteeing security with minimal cost.