{"title":"一种新的离散时间序列预测方法","authors":"K. Spicher, Boxing Li, D. Fang","doi":"10.2991/ICMEIT-19.2019.48","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This essay relates mainly to sporadic FC (forecasting) methods and error measures. The existing related FC methods of sporadic time series (STS), including the SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing), Croston’ s / SBA method and patented WSS method as well as two applicable error metrics APE and THEIL'S U are introduced briefly. Then the focus is laid on the analysis and presentation of a new forecasting yet unpublished method, SIMFAC (1), which is dedicated to STS and includes a new error metric, MEM (Matching Event Metric). For a more comprehensive comparison among methods, Cosine Similarity (CS) metric, will be introduced and applied in this essay.","PeriodicalId":223458,"journal":{"name":"Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Mechatronics Engineering and Information Technology (ICMEIT 2019)","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2019-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"SIMFAC-A New Forecasting Method for Sporadic Time Series\",\"authors\":\"K. Spicher, Boxing Li, D. Fang\",\"doi\":\"10.2991/ICMEIT-19.2019.48\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"This essay relates mainly to sporadic FC (forecasting) methods and error measures. The existing related FC methods of sporadic time series (STS), including the SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing), Croston’ s / SBA method and patented WSS method as well as two applicable error metrics APE and THEIL'S U are introduced briefly. Then the focus is laid on the analysis and presentation of a new forecasting yet unpublished method, SIMFAC (1), which is dedicated to STS and includes a new error metric, MEM (Matching Event Metric). For a more comprehensive comparison among methods, Cosine Similarity (CS) metric, will be introduced and applied in this essay.\",\"PeriodicalId\":223458,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Mechatronics Engineering and Information Technology (ICMEIT 2019)\",\"volume\":\"11 1\",\"pages\":\"0\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2019-04-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Mechatronics Engineering and Information Technology (ICMEIT 2019)\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.2991/ICMEIT-19.2019.48\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Mechatronics Engineering and Information Technology (ICMEIT 2019)","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2991/ICMEIT-19.2019.48","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
SIMFAC-A New Forecasting Method for Sporadic Time Series
This essay relates mainly to sporadic FC (forecasting) methods and error measures. The existing related FC methods of sporadic time series (STS), including the SES (Simple Exponential Smoothing), Croston’ s / SBA method and patented WSS method as well as two applicable error metrics APE and THEIL'S U are introduced briefly. Then the focus is laid on the analysis and presentation of a new forecasting yet unpublished method, SIMFAC (1), which is dedicated to STS and includes a new error metric, MEM (Matching Event Metric). For a more comprehensive comparison among methods, Cosine Similarity (CS) metric, will be introduced and applied in this essay.
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