国际房地产投资的风险:以中东欧为例

Kateryna Kurylchyk
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引用次数: 0

摘要

国际房地产多样化提供了巨大的利益,但不可避免地伴随着相当大的风险和成本。这需要对各种选择进行彻底的分析,以便考虑到国际投资本身所隐含的大量不确定性和外来性,以及外国固有的房地产市场风险。经济不景气加剧了这些因素,使房地产投资者在海外投资时更加谨慎。2008年事件发生后,中欧和东欧也出现了类似的情况。面对经济低迷,市场参与者对在该地区的投资变得谨慎起来,并将他们的投资从许多曾经繁荣的市场转移出去。换句话说,危机导致对风险的认识增加,并使中欧和东欧国家的投资战略转向更有选择性,尽管房地产风险可能很低,但国际投资者没有准备好承担高风险。因此,在做出投资决策时,相对更重视国家风险,而不是财产细节和收益。在众多关于国际背景下房地产投资风险和决策因素的学术论文中,针对中东欧国家的论文很少。这项研究的动机是认为缺乏对中东欧房地产市场和投资决策因素的研究,以及需要了解这些方面,以确保在该区域进行健全的投资。它旨在确定投资房地产的主要风险,特别关注选定的中东欧国家。本研究首先回顾了现有关于国际房地产投资的出版物,并总结了影响相关决策的常见风险和因素。国家风险作为一种复合风险及其组成部分的复杂性通过建立国家风险框架来解决。此外,本文还讨论了中东欧市场的房地产投资趋势和问题,并确定了中东欧地区的具体投资风险。最后,通过问卷调查研究了该地区国际投资者认为影响投资决策的因素的重要性。总的来说,这项探索性研究有助于了解国际房地产投资的障碍和风险,同时帮助投资者提高对中东欧地区房地产投资的机会和影响的认识。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Risks in International Real Estate Investment: The Case of Central and Eastern Europe
International real estate diversification provides significant benefits which are inevitably associated with considerable risks and costs. This requires a thorough analysis of options in order to take account of substantial uncertainty and foreignness implied by international investment per se, as well as the real estate market risks inherent in foreign countries. These factors are intensified by economic distresses and make real estate investors use more discretion in their operations abroad. A similar situation has been observed in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) after the events of 2008. In the face of downturn, market players have become cautious about investing in this region and shifted their investments away from many once booming markets. In other words, the crisis resulted in an increased perception of risk and a change towards more selective investment strategies in CEE, with international investors unprepared to take high country risks even though property risks may be low. Hence, relatively more importance is attached to country risks vs. property specifics and gains when making investment decisions. Among numerous academic papers on real estate investment risks and decision-making factors in the international context, there are only few undertaken for the CEE countries. This study has been motivated by the perceived shortage of research on real estate markets and investment decision-making factors in CEE, as well as the need for understanding these aspects in order to ensure sound investments in the region. It aims to identify major risks of investing in real estate, with a particular focus on selected CEE countries. The study reviews in the first instance the existing publications on international real estate investment and summarizes common risks and factors affecting relevant decision-making. The complexity of country risk as a composite risk and its components are addressed by creating a country risk framework. Further, real estate investment trends and issues in the CEE markets are discussed, with specific investment risks for the CEE region identified. Finally, the importance of the factors influencing investment decision-making, as perceived by international investors in the region, is studied through a questionnaire survey.Altogether this exploratory research contributes to the understanding of barriers and risks of international real estate investment while assisting investors in improving their perception of opportunities and implications associated with property investments in the CEE region.
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