可持续社会及其稳定性的全球视角

H. Burkhardt
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摘要

人们常说,世界上某些地区的饥荒和贫困是分配问题,而不是生活必需品的生产问题,目前看来这很可能是真的。然而,我们分配制度的改进不仅解决了严重的区域贫困问题,而且还造成了区域相互依存。因此,在当今的跨大陆贸易中,与可持续性有关的问题已成为全球性问题。整个世界是一个相互联系的网络。是否有一只“看不见的手”引导着当地的行动朝着有利于整体的方向发展,或者这种联系是否需要深思熟虑的全球规划?当我们展望遥远的未来时,也会出现类似的问题。许多人对未来盲目信任,不关心人类文明的长期可持续性问题。那些相信科学技术的人对全球粮食问题的警告做出了回应:“工程师们会发明出一些能解决我们问题的东西。”那些有宗教倾向的人说:“为什么担心明天?过去供养我们的‘上帝’将来也会这样做。”这种宿命论的立场在今天有多大用处?鉴于我们所拥有的知识,我们对地球造成的不可逆转的损害,将给子孙后代带来负担,难道我们不负有责任吗?人类有能力有意识地选择未来的道路吗?本文分析了世界的状态及其过程的稳定性。我们放眼全球,放眼长远。所使用的基本工具是物质、文化、生物、社会和生态物质的平衡方程。为了便于直观的理解,导出了可持续的动态平衡的条件,并以人均值表示。概述了自然科学和工程、社会科学和人文科学对可持续发展可能做出的贡献。最后,给出了一些理想的和偶然的可持续发展路径。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Global View Of A Sustainable Society And Its Stability
It is often said, and at present it is probably true that famine and poverty in some parts of the world are a problem of distribution rather than one of production of the necessities of life. The improvement of our distribution system, however, does not only solve an acute problem of regional deprivation, but also creates regional interdependence. Thus, with present day transcontinental trade the questions related to sustainability become global issues. The whole world is an interconnected network. Is there some "invisible hand" which guides local actions in a direction beneficial to the whole or does this connectedness necessitate deliberate global planning?A similar question arises when we look far ahead in time. Many people have a blind trust in the future and are unconcerned with questions of long term sustainability of human civilization. Those who believe in science and technology respond to warnings of global sustenance problems: "The engineers will invent something that will solve our problems." Those with a religious bent say: "Why worry about tomorrow? 'He' who has provided for us in the past will do so in the future." How useful is this fatalistic stance today? Given the knowledge we possess, are we not responsible for irreversible damages to the Planet which will burden future generations? Is mankind capable of consciously choosing its future path?This paper analyses the state of the World and the stability of the processes in it. We take a global and long term perspective. The basic tool used is a balance equation for material, cultural, biological, social and ecological substances. Conditions for sustainable, dynamic equilibria are derived and presented in per capita values in order to facilitate intuitive comprehension. Possible contributions to sustainability of the natural sciences and engineering and of the social sciences and the humanities are outlined. In conclusion some desirable and some accidental paths to sustainability are given.
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