美国结肠扭转:趋势、结果和死亡率预测因素

Joseph D. Love
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引用次数: 1

摘要

前言:结肠扭转是一种罕见的疾病,死亡率高。大多数研究来自高流行地区,数量有限。没有研究在国家层面调查死亡率的趋势、结果和预测因素。方法:回顾性分析2002-2010年全国急诊住院患者结肠扭转病例。分析患者的人口统计学、医院因素和不同手术的结果。采用logistic回归LASSO算法,综合术前和手术变量,建立乙状结肠(SV)和盲肠扭转(CV)的死亡率预测模型。结果:在研究期间,美国估计有3351152例肠梗阻入院。63749例(1.90%)以结肠扭转为主。CV的发病率每年增加5.53%,而SV的发病率保持稳定。SV在老年男性(70岁)、非裔美国人、糖尿病和神经精神疾病患者中更为常见。相比之下,CV在年轻女性中更为常见。17%的病例单独使用非手术减压。在手术治疗的病例中,89%的病例进行了切除手术,而手术扭曲伴或不伴固定手术仍然不常见。SV致死率为9.44%,CV致死率为6.64%,同步CV和SV致死率为17%,横结肠扭转致死率为18%。LASSO算法确定肠坏疽和腹膜炎、凝血功能障碍、年龄、使用造口术和慢性肾脏疾病是死亡率的强预测因子。结论:结肠扭转是临床上罕见的肠梗阻病因
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Colonic Volvulus in the United States: Trends, Outcomes, and Predictors of Mortality
Introduction: Colonic volvulus is a rare entity associated with high mortality rates. Most studies come from areas of high endemicity and are limited by small numbers. No studies have investigated trends, outcomes, and predictors of mortality at the national level. Methods : The Nationwide Inpatient Sample 2002–2010 was retrospectively reviewed for colonic volvulus cases admitted emergently. Patients’ demographics, hospital factors, and outcomes of the different procedures were analyzed. The LASSO algorithm for logistic regression was used to build a predictive model for mortality in cases of sigmoid (SV) and cecal volvulus (CV) taking into account preoperative and operative variables. Results: An estimated 3,351,152 cases of bowel obstruction were admitted in the United States over the study period. Colonic volvulus was found to be the cause in 63,749 cases (1.90%). The incidence of CV increased by 5.53% per year whereas the incidence of SV remained stable. SV was more common in elderly males (aged 70 years), African Americans, and patients with diabetes and neuropsychiatric disorders. In contrast, CV was more common in younger females. Nonsurgical decompression alone was used in 17% of cases. Among cases managed surgically, resective procedures were performed in 89% of cases, whereas operative detorsion with or without fixation procedures remained uncommon. Mortality rates were 9.44% for SV, 6.64% for CV, 17% for synchronous CV and SV, and 18% for transverse colon volvulus. The LASSO algorithm identified bowel gangrene and peritonitis, coagulopathy, age, the use of stoma, and chronic kidney disease as strong predictors of mortality. Conclusions: Colonic volvulus is a rare cause of bowel obstruction in the
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