Anomalous subtropical zonal winds drive decreases in southern Australian frontal rain

Abstract. Cold fronts make a significant contribution to cool season rainfall in the extratropics and subtropics. In many regions of the Southern Hemisphere the amount of frontal rainfall has declined in recent decades, but there has been no change in frontal frequency. We show that for southeast Australia this contradiction cannot be explained by changes in frontal intensity or moisture at the latitudes of interest. Rather, declining frontal rainfall in southeast Australia is associated with weakening of the subtropical westerlies in the mid-troposphere, which is part of a hemispheric pattern of wind anomalies that modify the extratropical zonal wave 3. Fronts that generate rainfall are associated with strong westerlies that penetrate well into the subtropics, and the observed decrease in frontal rainfall in southern Australia can be linked to a decrease in the frequency of fronts with strong westerlies at 25∘ S.