全球世界危机条件下的投资活动、特点和前景

T. Kulinich, Andrii Meshcheriakov, N. Shchur, M. Shashyna
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在全球竞争和技术进步的背景下,影响世界经济的因素越来越多。随着乌克兰战争的爆发,全球投资趋势发生了巨大变化。战争的影响远远超出了它的直接环境,造成了影响全球数十亿人的生活成本危机,同时不断上涨的能源和食品价格压低了实际收入,加剧了债务紧张局势。投资者的不确定性和风险厌恶情绪可能对今年的外国直接投资流动构成重大压力。2022年及以后对发展中国家投资流动的影响难以预测。本研究旨在建立全球经济危机背景下投资活动状态的规律性,确定投资活动发展的特征和前景。这可以通过进行回归分析来完成,以反映根据全球外包吸引力指数在法律适应性结果与公司绩效之间对世界25个经济体的投资活动水平的影响因素的依赖关系。为了检查投资活动的水平,有必要分析各地区、经济体和国家的外国直接投资流动状况。研究方法:信息综合法;回归分析;系统化、泛化、比较分析。结果。通过回归分析发现,决定系数的值表明,该回归模型解释了全球25个经济体中78%的投资活动水平对法律适应性结果与企业活动结果的依赖关系。这表明,仍有少数其他因素影响投资活动水平,这些因素未包括在回归模型中。据确定,2022年上半年全球FDI流量恢复至9720亿美元。然而,大部分增长发生在第一季度,而2022年第二季度全球外国直接投资流量与上一季度相比下降了22%。这是由俄罗斯全面入侵乌克兰导致的通货膨胀和利率上升以及能源价格上涨造成的。该研究发现,世界所有区域的外国直接投资流量都显著恢复。研究发现,在经历了2022年下半年的负增长后,一些欧洲国家的FDI大幅增加,后者也受到澳大利亚、德国、墨西哥、西班牙和瑞典的显著增长的推动,这些国家的FDI流入量增加了150多亿美元。据统计,2021年,美国是世界上最大的外国直接投资接受国和投资国。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Investment Activity un the Conditions of Global World Crisis, Features, and Prospects
In the context of global competition and technological progress, an increasing number of factors influence the economies of the world. With the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, there have been dramatic changes in global investment trends. The war has repercussions far beyond its immediate surroundings, causing a cost-of-living crisis that affects billions of people around the world while rising energy and food prices depress real incomes and exacerbate debt tensions. Investor uncertainty and risk aversion could put significant pressure on FDI flow this year. The impact on investment flows to developing countries in 2022 and beyond is difficult to predict. The research aims to establish the regularity of the state of investment activity in the context of the global world crisis and to determine the features and prospects of investment activity development. This can be done by conducting a regression analysis to reflect the dependence of the impact of factors on the level of investment activity in 25 economies of the world according to the Global Outsourcing Attractiveness Index between the results of legal adaptability and corporate performance. To check the level of investment activity it is necessary to analyze the state of FDI flows by regions, economies, and countries. Research methods: method of information synthesis; regression analysis; systematization, generalization, comparative analysis. Results. It has been established that as a result of regression analysis, the value of the coefficient of determination indicates that the regression model explains 78% of the dependence of the level of investment activity in 25 economies of the world between the results of legal adaptability and corporate activity. This indicates that there are still a small number of other factors influencing the level of investment activity that is not included in the regression model. It has been determined that global FDI flows recovered to USD 972 billion in the first half of 2022. However, most of the increase was in the first quarter, while global FDI flows decreased by 22% in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the previous quarter. This was caused by rising inflation and interest rates, and rising energy prices, due to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The study found that FDI flows recovered significantly in all regions of the world. It was found that FDI increased sharply in some European countries after the negative inflows recorded in the second half of 2022, the latter was also driven by significant growth in Australia, Germany, Mexico, Spain, and Sweden, whose FDI inflows increased by more than USD 15 billion. It has been revealed that the United States was the leading recipient and investor of FDI worldwide in 2021.
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