Saker Falcon in the Karatau Mountains and surrounding territories (Kazakhstan) – results of 2022 research

Saker Falcon (Falco cherrug) is one of the most threatened falcon species of Northern Eurasia, the range and the number of which has fallen catastrophically over the last four decades. One large breeding group was concentrated in the Karatau Mountains in southern Kazakhstan. Based on the results of studies in 2010 and 2022, we modeled Saker Falcon distribution in Google Earth Engine using the image classification method – Random Forest (probability + regression). The area of Saker Falcon breeding biotopes in Karatau and adjacent territories is calculated at 4222.64 km2, area of habitats – 9084.3 km2. Saker Falcon population in the study area for 2010 is estimated at 128–281 pairs, 200 pairs on average; in 2022 – 28–66, 46 pairs on average, with a decrease by 77%. The “catalyst” for the collapse of the Saker Falcon population in Karatau is a prolonged depression in the number of rodents. Pairs that survive while nesting almost exclusively feed on birds. The preserved resource is important for population recovery, and the further fate of the species will depend both on restoration of rodent populations and on the pressure of other negative factors, such as poaching and mortality on overhead power lines.