美国住房相对价格和随后的GDP增长

CEIS: Labor Economics Pub Date : 2019-10-22 DOI:10.2139/ssrn.3495585

R. Waldmann

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引用次数: 0

摘要

在美国，高房价与接下来5年的GDP增长相关。利用这一模式和用20世纪数据估计的趋势来预测大衰退是可能的。预测的衰退甚至比实际的衰退还要严重。

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The Relative Price of Housing and Subsequent GDP Growth in the USA

In the USA a high relative price of housing is associated with log GDP growth over the following 5 years. It is possible to forecast the great recession using this pattern and a trend both estimated with 20th century data. The forecast recession is even more severe than the actual recession.

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CEIS: Labor Economics

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