冰川融化:乞力马扎罗山37年(1984-2020)高分辨率冰川覆盖记录

Shuai Yuan, Juepeng Zheng, Lixian Zhang, Runmin Dong, Yile Xing, Yuhan She, H. Fu, Ray C. C. Cheung
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引用次数: 0

摘要

乞力马扎罗山上的冰川消失被认为是热带地区和全球变暖的重要标志,几十年来一直受到全世界的关注。本文利用基于深度学习的语义分割方法和Google Earth图像,利用数字高程模型(DEM)和ERA5- land (ERA5)对乞力马扎罗山1984 - 2020年的高分辨率冰川覆盖(GC)记录进行了雪线和温度变化分析。该方法的准确率为94.37%,证明了该模型能够准确记录GC区域。结果表明:(1)37年间,gcs面积从19.2 km2急剧减少到3.6 km2, 1984 - 2000年和2000 - 2020年分别减少约4%和2%;(2)雪线海拔从4651 m$上升到5088 m$,上升约4.37 m$;(3)乞力马扎罗山5000 m$的平均气温从- 2.1℃上升到- 1.1℃,上升约1℃。这项研究表明,如果目前的损失继续下去,在几十年内将不会有GC。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Melting Glacier: A 37-Year (1984–2020) High-Resolution Glacier-Cover Record of MT. Kilimanjaro
Commonly recognized as an important symbol of the tropics and global warming, the glacier loss on Mt. Kilimanjaro has received worldwide attention for decades. In this paper, we propose a high-resolution glacier-cover (GC) record of Mt. Kilimanjaro over the period from 1984 to 2020, using a novel deep learning-based semantic segmentation method and Google Earth images, as well as digital elevation model (DEM) and ERA5-Land (ERA5) for snowline and temperature variations analysis. Our method achieves an accuracy of 94.37%, which proves the model's capability to record the GC areas precisely. The results show that (1) the GC area dramatically decreases from 19.2 km2 to 3.6 km2 during 37 years, which decreases about 4% and 2% per year from 1984 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2020 respectively, (2) the snowline altitude rises from $4,651 m$ to $5,088 m$ by about $437 m$, and (3) the average $5,000 m$ air temperature on Mt. Kilimanjaro increases from −2.1 °C to −1.1 °C by about 1 °C. This study indicates that there will be no GC within a few decades if the current loss continues.
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