From the Ashes? Modelling Conflict Dynamics Using Richardson Equations

We extend, and apply, one of the classic dynamic models in conflict economics due to Richardson (1919) and Boulding (1962). Restrictions on parameters are relaxed to account for alliances and for peace-keeping, and incrementalist as well as stochastic versions of the model are reviewed. These extensions allow for a rich variety of patterns of dynamic conflict. Using Monte Carlo techniques as well as time series analyses based on GDELT data (for the Ethiopian-Eritreian war, 1998-2000), we also assess the empirical usefulness of the model. It turns out that the Richardson model captures selected phases of the conflict quite well, a fact which can be used to distinguish between them.