乌克兰股票市场的日历异常

G. Caporale, A. Plastun
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引用次数: 12

摘要

本文是对乌克兰股票市场日历异常的全面调查。它采用各种统计技术(平均分析、学生t检验、方差分析、Kruskal-Wallis检验和虚拟变量回归分析)和交易模拟方法来检验以下异常的存在:一周中的一天效应;月之交效应;岁末效应;一年中的月份效应;1月效应;假日效果;万圣节的效果。结果表明,在一般日历异常不存在于乌克兰股票市场,但也有一些例外,即年终和万圣节效应的PFTS指数,和月份的UX期货。然而,交易模拟分析表明,只有基于PFTS指数的年初效应和UX期货的月份效应的交易策略才能产生可利用的利润机会,这可以被解释为反对市场效率的证据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Calendar Anomalies in the Ukrainian Stock Market
This paper is a comprehensive investigation of calendar anomalies in the Ukrainian stock market. It employs various statistical techniques (average analysis, Student's t-test, ANOVA, the Kruskal-Wallis test, and regression analysis with dummy variables) and a trading simulation approach to test for the presence of the following anomalies: Day of the Week Effect; Turn of the Month Effect; Turn of the Year Effect; Month of the Year Effect; January Effect; Holiday Effect; Halloween Effect. The results suggest that in general calendar anomalies are not present in the Ukrainian stock market, but there are a few exceptions, i.e. the Turn of the Year and Halloween Effect for the PFTS index, and the Month of the Year Effect for UX futures. However, the trading simulation analysis shows that only trading strategies based on the Turn of the Year Effect for the PFTS index and the Month of the Year Effect for the UX futures can generate exploitable profit opportunities that can be interpreted as evidence against market efficiency.
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