Statistical and Econometric Analysis of Selected Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract The paper examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on macroeconomic activity in the selected European countries. The studies are based on monthly and quarterly indicators of GDP, unemployment rates and key indicators of the tourism sector. To present how COVID-19 has affected these macroeconomic variables, statistic data from the three periods are compared. Namely, data are collected from the pre-pandemic period, i.e. the fourth quarter of 2019 as the reference period, the second period covers the first quarter of 2020 and means the beginning of the pandemic, and the third one covers second quarter of 2020, during which the pandemic has spread to all the analyzed countries. The following statistical techniques are used in the research: regression analysis, the hierarchical grouping of agglomerations, k-means method, and selected non-parametric tests (Kruskal-Wallis test for a selected group of countries and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for a selected pair of countries). The results show the significant impact of the pandemic on the level of gross domestic product, unemployment rate and turism sector. In most cases, a correlation between incidence of COVID-19 infections, unemployment rate and GDP is observed. The statistical techniques also allow to demonstrate the similarities and differences in the response of the economies to the COVID-19 pandemic. Central Statistical Offices of the selected countries are the main data source and for all calculations Statistica version 13.3. is used.