体面的养老金VS平衡的预算:俄罗斯解决困境的方法

M. Bogatyreva, A. Kolmakov, M. Balashova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

根据国际通行的做法,不可能同时解决两个问题,即既要平衡长期的联邦预算,又要维持人们退休后的生活水平。最近的实证例子是在乌克兰和希腊实施雄心勃勃的养老金计划的尝试失败。在预算收入突然增加的影响下(例如,由于全球市场有希望的变化),民粹主义政府采取慷慨的养老金计划是很常见的。这也可能源于在全球金融市场获得低息信贷的可能性。当养老基金的来源似乎是暂时的时,问题就出现了。在这一点上,有必要在这两个严酷的选择之间做出选择。第一种选择是平衡预算,但对人口养老金改革的实施来说是艰难而痛苦的。第二种形式是在当前时期慷慨地为养老金提供资金,随后在未来出现毁灭性的恶性通货膨胀。“预算vs养老金”的困境强化了一个事实,即没有人能够克服动态预算
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Decent Pension VS Balanced Budget: The Russian Solution to the Dilemma
According to the internationally accepted practice, it is impossible to solve two problems simultaneously, i.e. both to balance the long term federal budget and to maintain the level of living standards for people after their retirement. The recent substantiating examples are the failures of the attempt to implement ambitious pension programs in Ukraine and in Greece, in particular. It is common for populist governments to adopt generous pension schemes under the influence of suddenly increased budget revenues (for example, due to promising changes in the global market). This can also result from the possibility to get low-interest credits at the global financial markets. The problem arises when the sources of pension funding appear to have been temporary. At this point, it is necessary to choose between the two harsh alternatives. The first option is a balanced budget, but tough and painful for the population pension reform implementation. The second variant is generous funding of pensions in the current period followed by a devastating level of hyperinflation in the future. The “budget vs pension” dilemma reinforces the fact that no one can overcome the dynamic budget
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